Indonesia’s Presidential Election: High Stakes for US-China Rivalry in the Region
As Indonesians prepare to cast their votes for a new president, the outcome of the election holds significant implications for the ongoing rivalry between the United States and China in the Southeast Asian region. With its strategic location and economic importance, Indonesia has become a key battleground for these global powers, who have been at odds over various issues such as Taiwan, human rights, U.S. military presence, and China’s assertiveness in disputed waters, including the South China Sea.
Outgoing President Joko Widodo has pursued a foreign policy that avoids taking sides between Beijing and Washington. This delicate balancing act has allowed Indonesia to benefit from substantial Chinese trade and investment, including the funding of a $7.3 billion high-speed railway. At the same time, Jakarta has also strengthened defense ties and conducted military exercises with the U.S.
Analysts predict that these policies would likely continue if Prabowo Subianto, the current defense minister and the frontrunner in the election, emerges as the winner. Subianto adheres to a policy of neutrality and has publicly praised both the U.S. and China. He acknowledges America’s historical role in pressuring the Netherlands to recognize Indonesian sovereignty and recognizes China’s contributions to Southeast Asia’s economy.
However, another presidential candidate, Anies Baswedan, who is trailing behind Subianto in most surveys, promises to shift Widodo’s “transactional” foreign policy to one anchored on principles if elected. Baswedan emphasizes the importance of human rights and environmental protection in shaping Indonesia’s foreign policy. He believes that values should guide their relationships with other countries, rather than solely focusing on economic benefits.
Marty Natalegawa, a respected former Indonesian foreign minister, hopes that the new leaders elected will not only claim neutrality but actively contribute to creating a more stable U.S.-China relationship. The emergence of new leaders in the region has previously threatened the interests of both the U.S. and China. For instance, Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippine president who came to power in 2016, became a vocal critic of U.S. security policy while fostering close ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Duterte even threatened to evict American military personnel from the Philippines but later changed his stance during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic when he sought assistance from the U.S. for vaccines.
The rivalry between Washington and Beijing has had a significant impact on the region. Criticisms of China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea have been watered down within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional bloc consisting of 10 member states. Some ASEAN members aligned with China, such as Cambodia and Laos, have opposed any reproach or attempt to name China as the object of criticism in joint communiques after their annual summits.
Under Indonesia’s chairmanship, ASEAN expressed general concerns over aggressive behavior in the disputed waters but did not specifically mention China. This highlights the challenges faced by the bloc in addressing the issue due to differing interests among its members.
As Indonesians head to the polls, the outcome of the presidential election will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for the U.S.-China rivalry in the region. Whether it is Subianto’s continued pursuit of neutrality or Baswedan’s emphasis on principles, Indonesia’s foreign policy will play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics between these global powers. The eyes of the world are on Indonesia as it navigates this high-stakes election and its implications for regional stability and cooperation.
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