Jakarta –
Recent cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia have continued to experience a very significant increase. The government has also taken steps to tighten social restrictions again to quell the tantrums corona.
If the spread of COVID-19 cannot be controlled, what will be the impact on the economy?
Economist of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Bhima Yudhistira explained that one of the impacts is that people are back in anticipation by making spending savings. This means that consumption will decrease drastically.
“Bank deposits are getting fatter, but the economy is stuck. Banks are also confused about whether to disburse loans because business risks are rising. At first, people were optimistic about spending, but the post-Eid explosion conditions lowered consumer confidence again,” he explained when contacted detik.com, Sunday (20/6/2021).
If that happens then of course the sectors that will be affected again are restaurants, hotels and the tourism support sector. Not only that, other sectors will also be affected, such as the transportation sector, both land, sea and air.
“I predict there will be a wave of business closures and delays in payment of transportation company debts, which will increase significantly this year,” he added.
If there are a lot of business closures, it means that the storm of layoffs will still hit Indonesia. Bhima predicts that if it repeats itself, the Indonesian economy will still be in a recession.
Meanwhile, researcher from the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, Yusuf Rendy Manilet, said that if you look at the conditions last year when the first wave of Corona cases occurred, economic growth contracted for 3 consecutive quarters.
However, according to him, it does not mean that economic growth will contract again or be in negative territory. It will depend on government intervention later. What the government will take will also determine whether the storm of layoffs can be avoided or not.
“If we see now, it is actually still in the form of micro PPKM. If micro PPKM does have the potential to reduce community activities, it is far less than PSBB as was done by the government at the beginning of the pandemic. If PSBB is carried out, it will depend on how long it will take,” he explained.
“If it is carried out more quickly and with more discipline, the government should still be able to continue with the potential for economic recovery in the next quarter. So that it can reduce the potential for another wave of layoffs,” he added.
(das / dna)
– .
