Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The endless Russo-Ukrainian war turned out to be nothing when compared to the heated China-Taiwan relations and (God forbid) if a war broke out.
“The impact will be more devastating. The impact on Indonesia is greater because our trade relations with Taiwan and China are higher,” said Teuku Rezasyah, an international relations expert from Padjadjaran University to detik.comFriday (5/8/2022).
Indonesia clearly has economic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as well as Taiwan. Taiwan is a producer of technology products whose role is vital to the world, including Indonesia.
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Taiwan has the ability to produce chips, microprocessors, and information-technology products, no less advanced than South Korea and Japan. In addition, many Indonesians work in Taiwan.
“There are 300 thousand Indonesian citizens (WNI) in Taiwan who must be protected. That’s tough,” added Reza. Many Indonesian citizens make a living in Taiwan. The amount has not been calculated with family members in the country that they have to live with.
Reza explained that Taiwan has always been on war alert with China since 1949, after China was controlled by the Communist Party led by Mao Zedong. Taiwanese citizens also undergo military service. Taiwan then received support from the United States (US). And now, 2022, the situation is heating up after Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, visits.
“If there is an attack from China, there will be a terrible retaliation. If the Javanese say, die siji mati kabeh (if one dies, all will die altogether),” said Rezasyah.
Meanwhile, Hikmahanto Juwana, Professor of International Law at UI and Chancellor of the University General Ahmad Yani, assessed that this potential conflict arose because of the actions of the United States (US) through the visit of Nancy Pelosi. US actions will harm many parties.
“Due to the provocations carried out by the US, the world will be greatly affected,” said Hikmahanto.
China could have an alliance with Russia against the US. However, he predicts that the US will not be directly involved in the war if China and Taiwan actually go to war.
“The US, like in Ukraine, will only supply weapons, money, and invite its allies to carry out an economic embargo,” Hikmahanto said.
China, whose capital is Beijing, regards Taiwan as a province that must be reunited. However, Taiwan, whose capital city is Taipei, clearly already has a President and declares itself to be a sovereign country, whose name is the Republic of China (Republic of China/ROC), separate from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Previously, the Taiwanese government said that if the war did occur, the impact would be much more severe than the current Russia-Ukraine war. This is because the two countries play an important role in global supply chains and trade.
“Disruptions to international supply chains; disruptions to the international economic order; and (disruption of) growth opportunities will be far, far (more) significant than this one,” Taipei trade delegate John Deng was quoted as saying. Reuters. “There will be supply shortages around the world.”
One that could become rare is a semiconductor chip. Taiwan is a major producer in its production of up to US$ 118 billion (or equivalent to Rp. 1.742 trillion) by 2021.
Semiconductor chips are a key ingredient in the manufacture of a number of electronics, from cell phones to electric vehicles. Taiwan itself is trying to reduce its exports by 40% to China.
Meanwhile, in the past year China has continued to assert its claim that Taiwan is an integral part of its sovereignty. Most recently, the country led by President Xi Jinping has assigned hundreds of fighter jets to fly in Taiwan’s air defense zone, also known as ADIZ.
The issue of a potential Chinese attack was also raised by Taiwan’s Defense Minister, Chiu Kuo-cheng, last November. The minister, who comes from a military background, predicts an invasion signal will occur in 2025.
“Currently, the PLA (Chinese army) is capable of carrying out a local joint blockade of our critical ports, airports and outbound flight routes, to cut off our air and sea communication lines and impact the flow of our military supplies and logistical resources,” the ministry said. quoted Channel News Asia (CNA).
Meanwhile, the United States (US) itself is currently diligent in defending Taipei and opposing Beijing’s claims. In fact, at the Quad alliance summit in Japan late last month, US President Joe Biden also said that Washington would intervene militarily if China continued to try to take Taiwan by force.
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