While the maneuver is approved in the Senate, in which 21 billion out of 35 are allocated to counter the effects of high energy prices for the next three months, a measure arrives in the Milleproroghe decree that brings the end of the truce sanctioned last summer by the Draghi government between suppliers and customers: the extension until June 2023 of the suspension of the unilateral changes to electricity and gas contracts does not cover the renewals of expiring contracts. Therefore, the supplier companies could modify the general conditions on the price, only respecting the three months notice. By losing thousands of families, the price of energy could rise. This is the effect of the sentence of the Council of State which on 22 December annulled the stoppage that the Antitrust had approved against the main companies supplying electricity and natural gas on the free market accused of unjustified price increases.
As Assoutenti denounced in recent days, the decision applies to millions of families who signed fixed-price supply contracts between 2020 and 2021 which are now heading towards their natural expiry, and could now suffer an abnormal increase in tariffs. “These are the same companies that, as of 30 November 2022, had not paid the tax on extra profits, so much so that, compared to 10.9 billion euros of expected revenue, Minister Giorgetti estimated that there were only 2.7 paid” denounces the co-spokesman of Green Europe Angelo Bonelli. On the other hand, the Chamber has reduced the number of subjects to which the extraordinary tax on extra profits is applied, limiting it to companies with at least 75% of revenues from energy, with an estimated lower revenue of around 18.2 million euros for the 2023.
So far, in short, the bad news: but then what has the government done to limit the cost of energy? Among the measures envisaged are the strengthening of the electricity and gas bonus with the Isee threshold increased from 12 thousand to 15 thousand euros, the tax credit for energy-intensive companies, the VAT reduced from 22% to 5% for methane and district heating. Measures that will add to the extension of the zeroing of the system charges for electricity and gas and the reduction to 5% of the VAT for gas.
However, many of the measures in the budget law have only been planned or extended for the first quarter of next year. A relatively mild winter is benefiting families but paying bills for those most in need will be felt dramatically after the winter. Yet there is good news.
Good news: gas prices continue to fall
This time a hand is coming from the markets with the fall in the price of gas which on the Amsterdam market closed at 81.3 euros per MWh, after having reached a minimum of 76.2 euros. A value the latter reached last time on February 11, when Russia’s attack on Ukraine was only the worst of the scenarios, but still more than 12% above the prices of last January, already at their once inflated by increased demand from China.
Speculation is no longer stopped by the agreement on the maximum ceiling reached within the EU on 19 December, but rather by the favorable trend in the climate which has made it possible to preserve European gas reserves and even increase them. Added to this are the strong winds, which are increasing the electricity production of the wind farms located in Northern Europe, reducing the consumption of methane for generation. Then the deliveries of LNG, the liquefied natural gas, continue, which together with the flows from North Africa and the Middle East, allow Europe to do without the Russian contribution, thanks also to the central position now assumed by Italy which today is able to export almost 1/4 of what it consumes. Of the gas imported today, over 0.65 TWh comes from Algeria, 0.28 TWh from the Cavarzere (Rovigo) regasification terminal, 0.26 TWh from Azerbaijan and more than 0.15 TWh from the Livorno regasification terminal. Behind are Libya and Russia, with 0.11 TWh each, Northern Europe with 0.1 TWh and the Panigaglia (La Spezia) regasification terminal with 0.06 TWh.
Russia brings gas back to Europe: Putin bets on it
Now we will ask ourselves why, if the price of gas drops due to both the climate and the economic slowdown, increases in bill costs are expected. In fact it may seem a contradiction given what has been said up to now but with the beginning of January 2023 the new prices for the enhanced protection service will arrive as well as the price adjustments of the wholesale market indices (the PUN for the electricity and the PSV for gas) to which most of the offers of the Free Market are “hooked”.
In particular, as regards electricity, a drop in prices (by around 25%) is expected for the first quarter of 2023 compared to the current very high prices on the protected market with the last adjustment made at the end of September, when prices international benchmarks had reached historic peaks. For gas, on the other hand, there will be a 20% increase and it will be valid for consumption recorded in December 2022 (the new mechanism, introduced in October 2022, provides that the price is set in the following month and not in advance) and could be around around 1.48 euros per cubic metre.
“The time lag of the calculation and the different reference period are the cause of the confusion on the tariffs – explains the president of Nomisma Energia Davide Tabarelli – for the electricity bills the old calculation system has remained which fixes the tariffs for each quarter in advance , the reference prices are the relatively low ones of these days for the first of 2023. Therefore, if the gas prices of these days remain around €80 per megawatt hour, then for the next calculation at the beginning of February 2023 for the January 2023 bills, we will have order reductions of 30%”.
