NEW YORK “The most dangerous stock on Wall Street,” said David Trainer, head of the analytical company New Constructs, after the American carmaker Tesla. The company of billionaire Elon Musk is allegedly overvalued in such a way that such share prices would not have survived, even if terrible profits had come in the future.
Despite the pandemic, Tesla delivered more cars than expected. Year-on-year sales fell by less than 5 percent |
Tesla shares have jumped since this spring. The value of the carmaker has been skyrocketing since March and the market capitalization is attacking $ 400 billion.
But according to the American newspaper CNBC, Tesla is gaining an appreciation of about 400 percent this year and its shares are trading at 159 times the expected profits. At the same time, the foundations are far from corresponding to such an evaluation, and the prospects for the future are far from rosy.
“Under the best case scenario, Tesla would have to produce 30 million cars in the next ten years, and its successes would have to be comparable to that of Toyota – the most efficient carmaker of all time,” Trainer told CNBC. “Even if we believe it, the current stock price suggests that future profits will be even higher,” Trainer was quoted as saying by CNBC. “In our opinion, this is a giant – one of the largest ever – a house of cards that is about to fall,” he added.
The car of the future. The Model Y will appear on the market in 2021.
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The valuation at the mentioned 159 times would correspond to the expectation that Tesle will belong to over 40 percent of the electric car market in ten years. According to Trainer, a more realistic valuation would be at most ten times the expected profits.
However, Musk also succeeds in achieving seemingly unrealistic goals in his space company SpaceX, the first chips of the Neuralink project have already been implanted in the brains of pigs.
Tesla overtook Toyota and became the most valuable carmaker in the world. Its market price is almost $ 210 billion |
“Someone threw away hundreds of millions of dollars.”
He looked at how it is possible for a start-up carmaker that has not yet made a profit in the 12-month horizon to have a larger market capitalization than the two world threes (German BMWs, Volkswagen and Daimler, and American General Motors, Chrysler and Ford) combined. and the founder of the Vltava Fund joint-stock investment fund Daniel Gladiš.
“Someone has repeatedly bought in massive volumes of out of the money call options with a strike price (de facto options for overvalued shares; ed. Note) in tens of percent above the current price and expires in a few days,” Gladiš described on the Vltava Fund Facebook page. which he noticed in the spring. “Purchases of call options thus generate actual purchases of the shares themselves, which push the share price higher,” he claims.
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According to Gladiš, Tesla’s shares would not jump significantly during the four days remaining until expiration. “However, this would mean that it is highly probable that all options will expire without exercise and the money spent on their purchase will be gone. That also happened, “Gladiš described.
Nevertheless, it is said that similar transactions took place sometimes and daily. “Someone threw hundreds of millions of dollars into pointless purchases of Tesla stock options in order to manipulate the share price upwards.”
“If the purchases of options are large enough, they can move incredibly with the share price. Which was also the case with Tesla, “he claims. “I have not seen options purchases in Tesla in the last week and its share price is 20 percent lower,” he added.
The fact that Tesla was not included in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, which had not lost more than 15 percent since Friday and was hovering around $ 350 on Tuesday afternoon, also contributed to the current decline in the value of Tesla’s shares.
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