The broker expects the Bank Group Q4 / 63 to have a profit of 2.5-2.74 billion baht, recovering from the previous quarter, indicating that BBL- KBANK and KTB have recovered the best. After the reserve has decreased Recovery fee income Believe the whole group has passed its lowest point.The trend in ’64 continues to improve, but the second round of COVID-19 may delay the recovery by three months.
*** CGS expects the Bank Group Q4 / 63 profit of approximately 2.5 billion million baht.
Securities Company (Securities) CGS-CIMB (Thailand) Co., Ltd. or CGS-CIMB revealed that the banking group performance in 4Q20 is expected to have a total net profit of 25 billion baht. 28% compared to the same period last year, but increased 9% compared to the previous quarter. Believing that the worst situation has passed This is because most banks have reserved pre-emptive provisioning since the first nine months of 2020.
Only BBL, SCB, and TISCO stocks in the study group recorded profit before provision (PPOP) recovered in 4Q20 compared to the previous quarter. BBL’s 3Q20 results are pressured by a merger in Indonesia, and SCB and TISCO should benefit from higher fee income. Led by fund management fees
Meanwhile, BBL, KBANK and KTB are expected to have the highest net profit growth in 4Q20, respectively, due to lower provisioning. Because these banks set highly aggressive reserves in the first nine months of 2020
Overweight also recommended the banking group, looking at the short-term negative factors from the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand will be offset by improved fundamentals in the first half of ’21 when the NIM shrinking and The high bad debt reserve rate began to change in the opposite direction in the year ’64.
By giving KBANK as the top pick with a target price of 122 baht and still recommend buying for speculation Banking groups such as BBL, KBANK, KKP, SCB, TISCO, TMB
| CGS-CIMB Bank Group earnings forecast | ||||||
| A date announce |
share | Expect profit Q4 / 63 (MB.) |
change % |
Expect profit Year 63 (MB.) |
change % |
|
| QoQ | YoY | |||||
| 14 Jan | TISCO | 1,653 | 2.6 | -11.4 | 6,080 | -16.36 |
| 20 Jan | CCP | 991 | -26.4 | -41 | 5,006 | -16.39 |
| 20 Jan | SCB | 4,823 | 3.9 | -12.4 | 27,075 | -33.04 |
| 20 Jan | TMB | 1,623 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 10,500 | 45.38 |
| 21 Jan | BBL | 4,755 | 18.4 | -40.6 | 19,537 | -45.45 |
| 21 Jan | KBANK | 7,251 | 8.6 | -17.6 | 23,479 | -39.37 |
| 21 Jan | KTB | 3,285 | 7.5 | -56 | 16,564 | -43.43 |
| Total | 24,381 | 108,241 | ||||
*** Yuantamong Q4 / 63 Bank Group has a profit of Bt27.4bn.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. revealed that the Bank Group will report a profit in Q4 / 63 of Bt27.4bn, although the overall operating performance has dropped 21.4% compared to the same period last year. The impact of lower interest income in line with the policy interest rate has dropped more than five times since 3Q19 depressed Asset Yield lower, plus an accelerated provisioning level to cope with economic risks. economy From the outbreak of COVID-19, but still seeing improvements from 3Q63.
The 4Q20 profit of Bt27.4bn grew 19.6% compared to the previous quarter. There are supporting factors: 1. Non-interest income is expected to increase from the previous quarter. Both in terms of credit card fee income Insurance brokerage fees And fees for selling investment units That entered the High Season, plus activities through the branch began to recover In addition, various banks are expected. The revaluation gain is recorded through the income statement for equity and debt instruments driven by various cash flows. The country that has inflowed in the past has caused the investment value to increase.
2. The credit portfolio expanded, despite the fact that receivables under the moratorium program began to maturity and began to gradually repay as usual. This reflects the improved new credit activity. Especially in the home loan category, auto hire purchase loan And liquidity supplements; and 3. expect overall provisioning expenses begin to decline. Because all 7 banks have already passed a large reserve While the direction of NPL in 4Q20 is expected to increase gradually. As a result, it is expected to see a slower credit cost compared to the last 2 quarters.
| Yuanta Expects Bank Group Earnings | |||||
| share | Expect profit Q4 / 63 (MB.) |
Change% | Expect profit Year 63 (MB.) |
change % |
|
| YoY | QoQ | ||||
| SCB | 5,918 | 7.5 | 27.5 | 28,170 | -43.54 |
| KBANK | 6,826 | -22.4 | 2.2 | 23,055 | -67.97 |
| KTB | 4,106 | -44.9 | 34.3 | 17,074 | -41.69 |
| BBL | 5,531 | -30.9 | 37.7 | 20,314 | -43.28 |
| TMB | 2,003 | 24 | 23.7 | 10,881 | 50.66 |
| TISCO | 1,673 | -10.3 | 3.8 | 6,102 | -16.06 |
| CCP | 1,414 | -15.8 | 5 | 5,429 | -9.33 |
| Total | 27,471 | 111,025 | |||
*** KGI looks at the second round of COVID-19 epidemic, causing bank to recover 3 months later
KGI Securities (Thailand) said that although the second round of COVID-19 infection raised concerns about the economy. Not expected to lock down nationwide But this happens only in some areas with severe outbreaks. This makes the overall situation manageable by 1Q21, so the bank’s operating recovery could be delayed by about three months. By Kasikorn Bank And Krung Thai Bank There is a risk from debt elimination scheme Therefore, it is expected to be more volatile and subject to a higher risk of asset quality than others.
The impact of the outbreak that continues for the next three months is likely to put pressure on ROE in 1Q21, as in the first half of 2020, at about 5% and a slight increase to 5-6%. From the coronavirus outbreak And potential positive factors from faster than expected vaccines New investment in normalcy after COVID-19 and stimulus from the government, we saw a limited downside for large banks with a PBV of 0.5x.
The current trends of the bank are challenging in the short term. The positive side is due to the bank’s gains from the capital and bond markets which have put pressure on costs. We also focus on short-term risk, especially when choosing stocks, especially the top 3 stocks such as BBL, TMB and KKP.
BBL shares are less risky for troubled borrowers as there is a large reserve to deal with short-term risks. While investing in TMB shares will benefit from operating cost savings. And investing in KKP shares will receive additional benefits in terms of investment. And asset management
| KGI Bank Group earnings forecast | ||||
| share | Expected 20-year profit | Expect profit Year 64 (MB.) |
price Target (B.) |
|
| (delete.) | YOY(%) | |||
| BBL | 20,362 | -43 | 28,197 | 160 |
| KBANK | 17,007 | -56 | 19,997 | 130 |
| CCP | 5,170 | -14 | 6,227 | 68 |
| KTB | 15,202 | -48 | 15,374 | 13.2 |
| SCB | 28,401 | -30 | 31,103 | 100 |
| TISCO | 6,314 | -13 | 6,416 | 94 |
| TMB | 10,204 | 41 | 13,991 | 1.53 |
| Total | 102,660 | 121,305 | ||
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