By Luis Benavente Gianella
Director of Vox Populi Consultoría, expert in political communication and public opinion
According to the National Death Computer System * (SINADEF), in April, May and June 2018 there were 28,406 deaths in Peru; in the same months of 2019 the number of deceased was 27,148; and in that period of 2020 the figure reached 61,875 deaths.
That is, if the average number of deaths in the second quarter of 2018 and 2019 was 27,777, the excess deaths in the same period in 2020 was 34,098. This results in a 123% excess deaths in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the average for the same period of 2018 and 2019.
It could be concluded that this excess is due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but for the government, as of June 30 there are only 9 677 deaths due to COVID-19 in the country. Excess deaths are 352% higher to the official figure.
According to SINADEF, 53.4% of the total deaths in June 2019 were men, and that percentage is very stable compared to previous years. But in June 2020, the percentage of deceased men was 63.4% of the total deceased, 10% more than the previous year.
The case fatality rate for COVID-19 in Peru is higher in men (70.9%) than in women (29.1%). The percentage approximation of the percentages of deaths of men recorded by SINADEF in June 2020 and those caused by COVID-19, is an argument to continue arguing that the excess deaths are due to the pandemic that the planet suffers today. The difference (63.4% vs. 70.9%) is due to the fact that the 27 777 deaths projected for June of this year would not have been due to COVID-19, obviously.
An explanation for the reduced number of deaths in the official figures would be underreporting, due to deaths of patients with COVID-19 who did not receive care in hospitals, being left out of the statistic. Another explanation would be that many COVID-19 patients who have died have been attributed other causes of death.
The number of people who acquired the disease and the number of deaths rose considerably due to the ease of contagion of the virus, and to the inaction and wrong actions of the central government, regional governments and local governments, as well as a sector of residents who did not comply quarantine, many of them for understandable reasons (need for informal work, lack of money to stock up on food, lack of refrigerator to preserve perishable food, etc.). The health care system has not been sufficient to meet the growing demand for care. At the same time, the Peruvian economy has collapsed.
Today, the country has ended the quarantine and returns to productive activity, the future is uncertain and hope must remain firm, while PAHO announces that Peru will reach its peak of contagion in August.
SINADEF. http://www.minsa.gob.pe/reunis/data/defunciones_registradas.asp 31/06/2020 NOTE:
– “Neither GRUPORPP nor its directors, representatives or employees will be responsible under any circumstances for the statements, comments or opinions expressed in this column, the author being solely responsible for it.”
