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Grozev predicted the outcome of the second phase of the war

Photo: Radio Liberty

Hristo Grozev

If the Russian troops fail to capture new territories in the near future, then the second phase of the war can be considered a failure for it.

Bellingcat lead investigator Hristo Grozev predicts that the second phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine will fail and end with the retreat of the aggressor’s troops. Grozev said this on the air of Ukraine 24.

According to him, even in the event of a defeat in the battle for Mariupol, Ukraine can still emerge victorious in the second wave of the offensive. Speaking about the situation in this city, Grozev called the main problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine there the lack of the required amount of weapons.

“As for weapons, they arrive weekly, time works for you. What was impossible a week ago will most likely be possible in two or three weeks,” the journalist says.

Grozev notes that the presence in Ukraine of high-quality high-precision artillery and missiles, which are already on their way to the country, remains decisive.

“You should not look at the situation today and tomorrow. You should look at it in a month. Western countries, namely 19 Western partners, provide Ukraine with high-tech weapons, this gives hope,” the expert said.

Regarding the rest of the Donbas, Grozev says that if the Russian Federation fails to seize new territories in the near future, apart from “minimum tactical” seizures, then the second phase of the war can be considered a failure for it. In this case, he predicts, in two or three weeks the Russian troops will break through in the opposite direction.

“This will allow Ukraine to open a second front. Therefore, the Russian troops will have to withdraw,” the journalist said.

At the same time, he stressed that the most important thing will happen in two or three weeks, and not in the next day or two.

Grozev previously said that Russia has enough resources to continue the war until the end of the yearbut social upheavals in Russian society may prevent this.

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