The World Health Organization has warned that young people could be the source of coronavirus spikes across Europe, with the continent on the brink of a second wave.
The organization’s director for Europe said a higher proportion of new cases are seen among young people.
But is this the case in the UK? And, if there are higher rates among young people – especially when it is documented that, overall, young people are less affected by COVID-19 – is that a cause for concern?
Dr Hans Kluge did not go to specific countries when he told BBC Radio 4’s Today program on Wednesday: “A growing number of countries are experiencing localized epidemics and an upsurge in cases… This is the consequence a change in human behavior.
“We are receiving reports from several health authorities indicating a higher proportion of new infections among young people. So, for me, the call is strong enough to rethink how to better involve young people. “
His warning comes at a time of growing concerns about the risk that communities will be re-infected by people returning from vacation hot spots, some of whom have been accused of observing less social distancing than might be seen at home. house, as well as reports of post-lockdown street parties and raves.
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, which collects data on the rates of coronavirus infection in Europe, has fragmentary information on the increase in rates among different age groups.
The UK is one of many European countries to release data on the number of people of different ages who test positive, but not all of them.
Austria, Denmark, Slovakia, Spain, Latvia, and Estonia publish figures on infection rates among different age groups and, in fact, some of their graphs show slightly lower rates. increase among younger groups.
In Belgium – which is said to be close to a second wave – in the other Baltic countries and in some Scandinavian countries, there are no clear signs of a clear trend occurring among young people.
The exceptions, where there are clear trends, are Luxembourg – which is currently experiencing the worst epidemic in Europe – and Croatia, where the incidence among young people is sharply increasing.
But Germany, France and Italy – the largest countries in the EU – have not provided ECDC with any statistics on the prevalence of COVID-19 in different age groups for a few months, if any. at all.
In the UK, Public Health England has been publishing infection rates among different age groups for several months.
Figures show that during the majority of the pandemic, infection rates were highest in older groups.
But the graph is misleading, as it’s hard to see the impact of easing the lockdown, when so many people aged 65 and over have been affected in the early stages.
A look at more recent figures suggests that infection rates among young people in England, at least, are becoming higher.
Excluding those over the age of 85, the 15-44 age group currently has the highest infection rate of any age group – almost one and a half times the group level. next highest.
And rates are rising – albeit slowly and only for the two weeks leading up to SPE’s last weekly monitoring report.
But how do you know if young people are to blame, when BSP figures only cover an age group as wide as 15 to 44 years old?
Additional data suggesting that young adults may have the highest infection rates was recently provided by a pre-printed study from Imperial College London, which found that out of some 120,000 swabs taken from people in England in May, the highest levels of infection were found among those aged 18 to 24.
So why is this bad? Especially when countless studies indicate that in general young people are much less likely to die if they catch the virus.
Experts say there are consequences and they could get worse.
Although young people often get the disease less severely, they can still contract one that has a lasting impact on their health.
And, the greatest risk is to others in the community – and further spread in the community will result in another surge in deaths among more vulnerable groups.
Dr Jeremy Rossman, senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent, told Sky News it could be worse than official figures suggest because many young people – who are less affected by the virus – are not not tested.
Because their symptoms are mild, they never show up in Public Health England figures, but they can still pass it on to others.
He said, “This rate in the healthy young adult population is actually underestimated because… the tests are biased… and everyone, regardless of the symptoms, is not tested. “
A study into the surge in coronavirus cases in Florida, which has seen thousands of new infections per day in recent weeks, found that the group that had seen a sharp rise in infection rates earlier than the rest were those of 20-24 years old.
The curves in the graph show how, once cases among 20-24 year olds started to increase, there was an increase in the number of those in the next oldest group infected, then the next oldest and so on. .
This is exactly what will happen in some European countries and would be expected in the UK, if rates start to rise among young people.
This is because studies have shown that younger age groups have higher contact rates – that is, they meet more people than others in older age groups – and are therefore more likely to catch the virus and pass it on to others.
Yuliya Kyrychko and Dr Konstantin Blyuss, mathematics readers at the University of Sussex, studied the spread of COVID-19 in the South Sussex region and found that this was exactly what happened in the phase previous pandemic – it has spread from Brighton which has a younger age structure, to surrounding areas with older age structures.
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Dr Kyrychko said: “Young people tend to socialize more, go to clubs, bars and restaurants and try to have as much fun as possible.
“The vulnerable and the elderly will continue to protect. In some ways, young people don’t care much about this. They are not afraid in the sense that it does not cause such a high rate of death.
“So these people will have the disease sooner and then … it obviously goes into the next age group and the next age group, and then it goes on and on. “
Dr Rossman said the reason this is happening is because young people interpret the messages they receive as saying that they are less at risk and react to the end of the lockdown.
Is Europe ready for a second wave of coronavirus?
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“The virus does not suddenly affect a different population,” he told Sky News. “It’s that we’ve had a very strong message for some time now about protecting the elderly and those at high risk… there has been a consistent message that says young people are much less at risk… and d ‘after my perception, there is this attitude that says,’ I’ve been locked up all this time. The pubs are finally open. I want to go out. And that’s what we see.
“At the same time, there is not unexpectedly a significant decrease in compliance with safety precautions, such as physical distancing, covering the face, good hand hygiene. “
Experts say more needs to be done to get the message across to young people.
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Dr Rossman added: “Germany was one of the first countries to see the shift to a healthy young adult population as the highest rate of positivity. And this has been correlated with a lower precautionary rate. They saw it very early in the pandemic. And now later we see that in the UK.
“We need to increase precautionary measures. We need to reduce transmission in this age group. We have to change the frame by saying that most of the cases are mild because a lot of cases are incredibly serious and can affect any age group. This is one aspect that we need to be messages about. ”
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