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Below is the interview with Antonello Marceddu, an independent trader, to whom we asked some questions on the main stock indices, with particular attention paid to Piazza Affari.
The Ftse Mib was again pushed down from 20,500. What are the expectations for the next sessions?
As is known, the gaps left open on the market must sooner or later be closed, even if no one can say when.
Speaking of the Ftse Mib, I would like to point out the gap of 10-11 August that the market also tried to fill in the session on Tuesday.
The index recovered some ground before closing the gap, with volumes slightly above average and this is a small sign of strength that should not be ignored.
In order to witness a resumption of the Ftse Mib it will be important first of all a return in the 20,000 area, beyond which the index will be able to lengthen the pace towards last week’s highs in the 20,450 / 20,500 area.
I point out a small gap between 13 and 14 August in the 20,200 / 20,250 area, a threshold that could be an intermediate stp before a recent top test in the 20,450 / 20,500 area.
It should be noted that the negative sessions experienced by the Ftse Mib between the end of last week and the current one, with the only exception of yesterday’s rebound, saw trading volumes in contraction.
The downward movement can therefore be read as a simple retracement and this suggests that the Ftse Mib can also find a support from which to start again in the 19,800 / 19,700 area, i.e. on the current price levels.
As mentioned before, the steps of the climb are area 20,000, 20,200 / 20,250 and an altitude of 20,500 points which I do not exclude can be overcome, with the subsequent achievement of area 21,000 by the Ftse Mib.
In my scenario I do not exclude the possibility of a return on these period highs, but if this is not the case, the index can continue to decline.
Confirmations in this sense will come from the abandonment of the 19,800 / 19,700 area, below which the decline will continue towards 19,250 points first and then towards an altitude of 19,000.
The euro-dollar has retraced after hitting highs in over two years. What is your view on this cross?
The euro-dollar has slowed down in the last few hours just when it seems to be able to easily reach the 1.20 threshold.
At the moment we can talk about a simple retracement, given that even on the weekly chart the cross shows strength.
The prices are on the second Bollinger band and could still rise towards 1.19 in the first and then towards the 1.194 / 1.195 area, with a subsequent step close to 1.20.
If this threshold is also exceeded for the euro-dollar, interesting growth spaces will open towards 1.215 / 1.217, important price levels to be monitored carefully if they are reached.
I see no graphic reasons for predicting a substantial decline from current values for the euro-dollar.
Oil is struggling to push beyond the $ 43 threshold, while remaining close to it. What information can you provide us for this asset?
Oil recently rose with low volumes and I would almost say that graphically it is replicating some US equity index.
At the moment I do not see downside risks for black gold which shows extremely low range of fluctuations, with a volatility reduced to minimum terms.
As long as oil remains above 40 dollars a barrel, there will be no talk of a decline.
It is difficult to determine upside targets with this low volatility, but we can indicate a first target at 43.6 / 43.7 dollars, corresponding to 50% of the large candle of last March 6.
If this level is exceeded, oil can point to the top again on March 6 at 46.38 dollars.
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