Foreign trade is setting a decade-long record, economists say


Foreign trade in May beat the decade ‘s anti – record. In April, we saw the largest drop in exports and imports over the last 10 years, but in May the results were even worse, economists point out. At the same time, the good news is that the fall in exports is now smaller than in 2009. In addition, Latvia’s export performance will definitely improve in the second half of the summer. It should be recalled that in May this year, due to the epidemiological crisis caused by Covid-19, Latvia’s foreign trade turnover amounted to 1.93 billion euros, which in real prices was 24.1% less than a year ago, according to Central Statistical Bureau data.

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The Ministry of Finance points out that the fall in exports of goods in May was recorded for all groups of goods. The sharpest decline is in vehicles, by a total of 51.2%, which was negatively affected by the decline in car re-exports. Agricultural and food exports fell by 19.3%, largely due to a decline in cereal exports to Saudi Arabia and several EU countries, as well as a decline in re – exports of alcoholic beverages to Russia.

“In May, the value of exports of goods at current prices decreased by 16.8% year-on-year. Imports of goods, on the other hand, decreased much faster by 29.6%. Consequently, the trade deficit has also decreased year-on-year,” Ministry of Economy Analytical Service Analyst Laura Stelmaka-Leja.

“May was still a month of great uncertainty, when restrictions were partially lifted in several European countries, but at the same time it was not yet clear how stable the situation would remain after the lifting of restrictions. So far, foreign trade data do not show any improvement,” he said.Swedbank“Economist Laimdota Komare.

In turn, banks “Luminor“Pēteris Strautiņš, an economist, says that it turns out that it is not profitable to be” too smart “during major world turmoil. People need relatively simple things in critical moments. This does not mean that Latvia should try to specialize in producing simple things. However, paradoxically, the time of the pandemic shows that not all the contribution of global specialization in international trade and economics can be measured in money.

“Of course, the decline in large exports is not good news for the Latvian economy, but far-reaching conclusions should not be drawn from this, as it was expected in the past and Latvia’s export performance will definitely improve in the second half of the summer. The Covid-19 crisis The rapid economic volatility has also meant that much of the macroeconomic indicators released a few months later are still lagging behind. This is certainly the case for May’s foreign trade figures, according to banks.Citadel“economist Mārtiņš Āboliņš.

“Currently, the indices show a moderate recovery, although it will continue to be dampened by weak demand. Disputes between the US and China will also maintain additional trade tensions. In the coming months, the export situation will improve, which will mean slower rates of decline. less deep, gives hope that it will be able to return to growth faster, “expresses”SEB bank “economist Dainis Gašpuitis.

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