The government hopes to prevent millions of Dutch people from ending up in poverty with measures such as setting a ceiling on the maximum amount of energy households have to spend on energy and a substantial increase in health benefits.
The billions of spending that the government will (mostly) make next year can be met in part thanks to a few unexpected gains that give little cause for joy.
1. Groningen gas: 2.3 billion
The first windfall comes from the soil of Groningen. Where consumers and businesses suffer greatly from the high price of gas, the government benefits. Groningen gas yields much more and this provides extra income for the state treasury.
The Ministry of Finance, spread over several years, expects to be able to use 8.4 billion euros of gas revenues to cover extra expenses. This is an amount of almost 2.3 billion for next year.
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And another development that throws sand at the economic engine – the labor market shortage – also generates money for the government. As a result, many of the government’s plans simply cannot be implemented.
2. Not spent: 2.1 billion
There are too few installers to install all the heat pumps and solar panels for which subsidies can be granted. And too few construction workers to carry out all the construction and infrastructure projects the government has planned.
The money that has been set aside for this will go back to the treasury. This is called “under-exhaustion”. This will translate into a windfall of € 2.1 billion this year and again next year, the finance ministry predicts. And in 2024 another half a billion.
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3. Skim the extra profits from energy companies: 2 billion
There will be an unexpected tax on the extra profits that energy companies make from high energy prices. This is a plan of the European Union. The Netherlands wants to regulate it through the mining tax. This is expected to yield more than € 2 billion next year.
4. Increase in taxes: 1.7 billion
And it is not only the aforementioned category of companies that must contribute to helping families. The profits of other companies are also taxed more heavily. The low corporate tax rate will increase and this will produce more than one and a half billion euros.
It will also increase the transfer tax that investors in the real estate market have to pay when selling a home. This is good for 130 million euros in more tax revenue next year.
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5. Abolish tax breaks: 700 million
In addition to raising taxes, there is another button that the government can turn: the reduction of tax breaks. This is done, inter alia, by limiting a tax advantage for self-employed entrepreneurs. The abolition of the so-called efficiency margin yields over half a billion euros.
In addition, the self-employed deduction, a tax advantage for the self-employed, is being phased out faster than expected. And this produces another 173 million euros.
6. Rollback discount: 5.4 billion
As the most important compensatory measure, the setting of the energy price cap, is still being worked out, the above calculation is not yet complete.
This is also not possible, because it is not yet clear how much this measure will cost. This is not surprising, because the price tag depends on the trend of the gas price. The higher the gas price next year, the more the government will have to intervene.
It is already partly clear where this money comes from. The government cancels another support measure: the temporary reduction of the energy tax. This cost $ 5.4 billion, which the government will now use to measure the price cap.
If all of the above measures don’t produce enough, additional money will have to come from somewhere else. The cabinet will make a decision on how and where in the spring of 2023, Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag writes.
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