Russian President Vladimir Putin announced new constitutional changes on Tuesday and unexpectedly dissolved the government of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday. What is the strategy behind the plans of the most powerful man in Russia? These are the five things you need to know about his reforms.
1. Putin needs a new government
According to Hubert Smeets, historian and co-founder of Raam op Russia, a journalist collective affiliated with Leiden University, Putin’s need for a new government is the result of growing protests among the population. “Since the raising of the retirement age in 2018, there have been hot spots of social protest in Russia,” said Smeets.
According to Smeets, the highlight of that social protest was the municipal elections in Moscow, when protests were held for weeks and opposition candidates were excluded from the elections or even arrested. This resulted in an election turnout of less than 20 percent, with no candidate winning a city council seat on behalf of Putin’s party.
“The lost elections meant a symbolic moral defeat for Putin and his government,” said Smeets. New faces in the Kremlin can provide renewed confidence in Putin’s government, which is important given the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2021.
2. Putin’s term expires in 2024
Putin’s fourth term of office ends in 2024. The current Russian constitution stipulates that a president may only hold that office for two consecutive terms. Putin retained his power by acting as prime minister between 2008 and 2012 under President Medvedev. In 2012, Putin took over again from Medvedev, who in turn became prime minister.
When Putin’s term of office ends in 2024, he must come up with a new way to remain the most powerful man in Russia. To do this, he needs a government who is behind him in order to implement possible constitutional changes. In this way, Putin could remove the maximum of two terms from the constitution.
But whether Putin wants to remain president after 2024 is still not certain. “It could also be that Putin wants to act as president of the state council or the security council after his presidency,” said Smeets. And it is precisely those two government bodies that gain more power with Putin’s constitutional changes.
3. The constitutional changes cause a power shift
Putin’s constitutional changes ensure, among other things, a decentralization of the power that the president currently enjoys. He wants, for example, to approve through a referendum that from now on the parliament can choose the prime minister and members of parliament. This task still lies with the president. Putin’s party has a firm grip on parliament.
That Putin is limiting the power of the president seems to indicate that he himself will no longer be president after 2024. Putin is more likely to remain president of the national security council or to assume the presidency of the so-called state council. The latter advisory body now has Putin included in the constitution, which gives it much more influence and will play a fundamental role in national administration. “Many political analysts in Russia think that Putin is moving to one of these councils,” Smeets said
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An election poster of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev is hung in the city of Krasnodar. (Photo: Reuters)
4. Who is the new prime minister?
The new prime minister, former head of the federal tax office Mikhail Mishustin, was unanimously appointed by the Russian parliament on Thursday. Analysts were surprised that Putin nominated this relatively unknown in Russian politics as prime minister. “I expected the mayor of Moscow to become prime minister because he is so popular,” says Smeets.
But that Putin pushed the unknown Mishustin forward may also have been a tactical move. “An unknown prime minister is paying less attention. Moreover, as a former head of the tax authorities, Mishustin can play an important role in drafting a general tax law with Belarus, something that Putin has wanted for years.”
5. Former Prime Minister Medvedev did not disappear from the political scene
Has Putin put the former prime minister and former president Medvedev in the garbage? Certainly not: Medvedev has now been appointed as the second man of the Russian National Security Council, consisting of administrators from the Russian Ministries of Defense and Home Affairs and the security services.
“With this Putin wants to thank Medvedev for all years of loyalty,” says Smeets. “Moreover, Putin is in a favorable position: he has a friend on the security council when he is no longer president himself.”
All these changes indicate that Putin is busy to maintain its power even after 2024.
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