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FHI: Infection rates are significantly less reliable than in the past

The figures for new registered cases of infection have flattened out, but the National Institute of Public Health strongly doubts whether this gives an accurate picture. On Wednesday they will publish a new report, and during the week the government will make a new assessment of the infection rates. Kunngjøringen om endringer kan komme raskt, sannsynligvis på fredag, etter det Nettavisen erfarer.

– We expect that reported infection rates are significantly less reliable than before, due to changed test criteria and extensive use of home tests, says department director Line Vold in the National Institute of Public Health to Nettavisen.

Looking for other data sources

– The flattening of infection rates is probably due in large part to changes in registration, but we do not know for sure exactly how much this affects the figures. We are exploring other data sources that could help us monitor the situation. Deposit rates are a more reliable data source, but they are delayed in time compared to infection rates, she explains.

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The last 24 hours, FHI has registered 26,109 coronasmittede in Norway, shows NTBs overview Wednesday. After rearrangements in the test system, fewer cases are registered than before. The previous 24-hour record after the changeover was 27 January. At that time, 24,677 infected people were registered. Before the changeover and with the old system, the highest daily figure was 24,958. It was recorded on 22 January 2022.

The figures from 25 January are not directly comparable with previous figures because on 24 January 2022 FHI made major changes to the testing system that affect the recording of infection rates. More people no longer need to take a PCR test after testing positive on a self-test, and thus the infection is not registered with FHI. However, people are encouraged to register positive tests with their municipality.

Reassessing the measures

This week, the government is reassessing the infection control measures that remain in law and that will apply until 17 February unless they decide otherwise. Det anbefales å holde 1 meter avstand til andre enn husstandsmedlemmer og tilsvarende nære och å bruke munnbind der det inte er mogelijk å opprettholde avstand, for eksempel i kollektivverkehrken og på butikken.

– Dersom det blir endringer vil vi raskt kommunisere dem ut, uttalte helseminister Ingvild Kjerkol (Ap) til Nettavisen mandag. On Wednesday she is in Grenoble, France for a meeting with EU health ministers, but on Friday she may be back for a possible new corona press conference. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) on his side will travel to France on Friday.

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Believes measures have slowed the omicron wave

Assistant Director of Health Espen Rostrup Nakstad believes that infection control measures in Norway have slowed down the omicron wave more effectively than in the country without similar measures.

– The turnaround time for registered omicron infections has been more than 10 days in Norway, and down to 2 days in some other countries. It is therefore now more a question of how good control you want to have with the spread of infection than whether you manage to knock down the infection or not, he tells Nettavisen.

Nakstad says it is primarily absenteeism that will determine how the health service and other sectors are affected in the weeks ahead.

– The pressure on intensive care units is significantly lower than before, while the number of infectious cases in hospitals and municipal institutions has been increasing, he says.

It is expected that current measures such as the ban on mouthing and the requirement for a one-metre distance from others could be removed as early as this week.


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