Expert on sanctions against the Russian Federation: the default of the occupying country is close

Credit ratings of the Russian Federation for the first time show anti-records after the default of 1998

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After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s credit ratings plummeted. On March 2, 2022, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Russia’s rating from BBB to B with a negative outlook. This decision, in particular, in the agency is explained by the power of the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation. For investors, such a rating signals a negative impact of circumstances on the ability and willingness to make payments on debts.

Following the international rating agency Moody’s lowered the Russian Federation immediately by six lines from Baa3 to B3, which corresponds to the level of high-risk speculative obligations. And, finally, the international rating agency S&P dropped Russia’s rating from BB+ to CCC–, which indicates difficulties with debt repayments. “The downgrade comes after the introduction of measures that we believe could significantly increase default risk,” S&P said.

According to Mikhail Demkiv, a financial analyst at ICU, ratings in Russia were below current levels only in the late 1990s, after the 1998 default. Recall that then, in order to refinance a large external debt, government short-term bonds were actively placed in the Russian Federation, but on August 17, 1998, they declared a technical default on them. This was followed by the devaluation of the ruble by 1.5 times, panic among the population, freezing of deposits of individuals, etc. Since the rating history of Russia has been conducted since 1996, it does not reflect the turbulent beginning of the 90s with the then hyperinflation.

Previously Focus wrotethat after the invasion of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine sent a letter to the above-mentioned authoritative international agencies with a request to lower Russia’s credit rating to the lowest possible. However, even after the last adjustment, Russia’s ratings still have room to fall.

“Probably, we will see a further decrease in the sovereign rating of the occupying country, because the borrower may not have the desire to service his debts to foreign investors, and given the blocking of reserves, and opportunities,” Mikhail Demkiv comments on the situation. Recall how wrote Focusthanks to Western sanctions, up to 60% of Russia’s international reserves will remain paralyzed.

Therefore, Demkiv does not exclude that Russia, subsequently, will be in the company of such countries as Suriname, Lebanon and Venezuela – several dozen disadvantaged states lower than Ukraine.

“For any normal government, a default, especially such a sharp one, would be a disaster. Because this is perhaps the most dramatic downgrade of the country’s credit rating that I have seen,” Demkiv comments. himself as caring for his citizens and their standard of living.”

Earlier, with reference to the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko, Focus reportedthat on March 1, 2022 Ukraine made a coupon payment on Eurobonds with maturity in September 2022. That is, Ukraine fulfills its debt obligations, despite the invasion of the Russian Federation and the possibility of Ukraine’s default is out of the question.

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