A number of experts have argued that the war will be protracted.
– I have a hard time imagining that the Russians in the short term will admit defeat and withdraw, despite the fact that they are bleeding heavily, says Per Erik Solli, who is a military adviser at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI).
In the long run, he believes that a Russian withdrawal is inevitable.
– It’s just a matter of time, says Solli.
– BIG LOSSES: The civilian losses are high and the material damage is great. A woman inspects the damage in a house after an attack in Donetsk. Photo: Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters
–
Putin is struggling
Russia uses about 75 percent of its ground operations in Ukraine. All the forces that were deployed at the border with Ukraine before the invasion have now been deployed.
The war has been going on for two weeks, and both sides have suffered heavy losses.
The experts believe that Russia has overestimated the operational capability of its own defense and underestimated the resistance and fighting spirit of the Ukrainian forces.
Although the Russians have made little progress, Solli believes that over time they can defeat the Ukrainian forces and win the conventional war.
– It is likely, but they will not be able to hold the country over time.
– INJURED: Ukrainian soldiers withdraw after fighting against Russian forces in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine, on March 8. Despite the fighting spirit, Russia is superior militarily. Photo: Anatolii Stepanov / AFP
–
A number of challenges
If the Russians manage to conquer Ukraine, the challenges are in line.
– Putin must occupy the country, and to do so he needs to maintain a force of over one million soldiers in the country over a long period of time. He does not have the capacity for that, says Solli.
Ståle Ulriksen, who is a college lecturer at the Naval Academy, envisages the same outcome.
– It will cost an enormous amount, in addition to the fact that the world’s sanctions hit them hard. Putin needs far more forces to occupy Ukraine than he does to win the war, says Ulriksen.
Even if Ukraine is occupied, Solli believes that it is also very likely that the Ukrainians will continue to resist hard.
– DEVELOPMENT: Per Erik Solli, military adviser at NUPI, believes that Russia must ultimately withdraw from Ukraine. Photo: Roy Arne Salater / TV 2
–
– The Ukrainians will continue their guerrilla war and commit civil disobedience. He is facing an angry population, which has lost friends and family members during the war, he says.
Even in Ukrainian cities over which Russia has taken control over the past week, the Ukrainian population is refusing to give in. Just days after the Russians gained control of the eastern city of Kherson, thousands took to the streets to protest.
A man even climbed on a Russian military vehicle and flew the Ukrainian flag, reports Sky Newswhich cites local media.
– This gives an insight into what Russia will face if they stay in Ukraine, Solli says.
More anti-Russian
In reality, Ukraine and Russia have been at war since 2014, after Putin annexed the Crimean peninsula.
– Afterwards, there was a change of mood in Ukraine, where a much larger anti-Russian attitude emerged. Putin has overlooked or misjudged this, says Solli.
– LOSS: That so many people lose their homes, friends and family in the war does something to the Ukrainians. They just get angrier, Solli thinks. Here from Kyiv. Photo: Daniel Leal / AFP
–
The military adviser admits that until the invasion he considered the Russian president a “cynical but experienced and rational leader”.
– Now I strongly doubt his judgment. Invading Ukraine was risky and cost Russia dearly. He is losing on all fronts, including domestic politics in Russia. The unrest we see in Russia now, we have not seen before, he says.
Solli believes that Putin relies too much on his own judgment. In addition, he only surrounds himself with yes-people, who do not ask critical questions about his military strategy, he believes.
– A rational person would pull out and try to repair the damage in Russia and relations with Ukraine and the West. He’s irrational, so I do not think he will give up right away.
– ESCAPES: Residents and the press are running to take cover during an attack in the city of Irpin near Kyiv on March 6. Photo: Carlos Barria / Reuters
–
A huge loss of prestige
Ulriksen thinks one can hope for a coup or a revolution in Russia, but he does not consider it likely.
– Retiring now, without achieving anything, is a huge loss of prestige for Putin. He must experience that he comes out of this with his head held high, he says.
– PEACE: Ståle Ulriksen, lecturer at the Naval Academy, does not envisage an easy path to peace. Photo: Frode Hoff / TV 2
–
This means that Ukraine is willing to negotiate with the Russians, and that there is a proposal on the table that Putin accepts.
– It also means acknowledging some of Putin’s worldview that the Soviet Union disintegrated too quickly and that Russia was treated unfairly. It’s a long way off, he says.
Solli believes Putin will eventually win over the regular Ukrainian forces, but that he will not overcome the population.
– REFUGEES: A boy plays basketball with a stuffed animal in a gymnasium of a primary school, which has been converted into a temporary evacuation center, in Przemysl, Poland. Photo: Fabrizio Bensch / Reuters
–
– Will not win the peace
Solli compares the present invasion to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan from 1979, which ended with the Soviet withdrawal in 1989.
– The Soviets had large forces inside, but they never managed to subdue the Afghan will to defend, which received weapons support from the United States. There was too much wear and tear over time on the Soviet defense, so they had to withdraw, says Solli.
He envisions something similar happening in Ukraine.
– But considering the size of the population in Ukraine and the close ties to and the large arms supplies from the West, I think the wear and tear will be much greater and happen faster, he says.
– Even if the Russians win the war, they will not win the peace.
And that could mean huge successors for the Russian president.
– PROTEST: The opposition the Ukrainians show to Russia is supported worldwide. Here, the people of Budapest are protesting against the Russian president’s invasion. Photo: Marton Monus / Reuters
–
Will probably not survive politically
General Sverre Diesen, who is a former defense chief, believes that Ukraine does not want to win the war militarily, but that they can win it politically.
– They can win politically by denying the Russians a military victory. From the defender’s point of view, this is often sufficient, says Diesen.
He believes it will be too great a political and prestigious defeat for Putin.
– It will be a demonstration of a failed policy and strategy, so then it will take a lot for him to survive politically. If he is allowed to continue as president, he will be very politically weakened, says Diesen.
–
