– The really scary thing now is if China takes the opportunity while the US is fairly busy in Ukraine attacking Taiwan.
That’s what Iver Neumann, director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, says.
Despite the war in Ukraine, Neumann believes that today Taiwan is “the most dangerous place in the world”.
– The war in Ukraine is primarily a regional war in Europe, while a Chinese attack on Taiwan will immediately bring the United States into play. Then we will have a worldwide situation, so it couldn’t get more serious, actually.
– Taiwan will enter the kingdom
China’s military exercise began on Thursday as a reaction after US top politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan.
– READY: Iver Neumann, director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, calls Taiwan “the world’s most dangerous place”. Photo: TV 2
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Chinese authorities say Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is provocative and undermines China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Neumann says there has always been a temptation for China to do what it sees as “cleaning up” Taiwan.
– China has been completely consistent, not only under this leadership, but throughout communist history, that Taiwan should enter the kingdom. Sooner or later they will try, and now they have stepped up, he says.
Neumann believes that an attack on Taiwan would mean major changes in the world as we know it today.
– Then the entire Western world order as we know it after the end of the Second World War will be under direct challenge.
– On a low level
Henning Kristoffersen, special advisor in Position Green and researcher at the University of Oslo, agrees with Neumann. Nevertheless, he believes that China has no plans to invade Taiwan right nowbut points to several reasons to be uncertain.
– The relationship between the US and China is at a low point, and it is clear that in that situation and with China’s very extensive exercise, the risk of an accident increases.
– INCREASED DANGER: Henning Kristoffersen, researcher at UiO, points out that the danger of conflict increases in line with China’s increasing level of activity around Taiwan. Photo: TV 2
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Kristoffersen points out that there are many wars that have started because the triggering cause is precisely an accident.
– Can be useless
– China has armed up considerably in recent years and militarily is a more dangerous enemy for Taiwan?
– Absolutely, the vast majority agree that a two-sided war, i.e. a war that only involves Taiwan and China, without the USA getting involved, in which China is superior.
Nevertheless, Kristoffersen believes that taking Taiwan will be difficult, especially with ground forces.
– It is about how Taiwan, i.e. the island, looks topographically, and it is demanding in that way. But China is completely superior to Taiwan.
– Not a given
If there is a war, Kristoffer explains that it will be precarious for Taiwan if the US comes to the country’s aid to a greater extent than until now.
Taiwan is completely dependent on the US supplying them with soldiers, weapons and with warships and fighter planes, he elaborates.
At the same time, there are several experts who believe that Taiwan has no chance, even with help from the Americans, according to Kristoffersen.
– It is no longer a given, even with the USA’s involvement, that the USA and Taiwan will emerge victorious from a conflict with China. Therefore, there is no doubt that the most dangerous thing in the world today is a possible China-Taiwan conflict.
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