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Expectations of Rising Bond Prices and Economic Slowdown: Insights from Bank of Japan Governor and U.S. Composite PMI

Bond prices are expected to rise on the 25th. The U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September showed an economic slowdown, continuing the trend of lower U.S. long-term interest rates. The fact that expectations for early monetary policy revisions have receded following remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has also led to buying.

Makoto Suzuki, senior bond strategist at Okasan Securities, said he expects a steady development in response to lower U.S. interest rates, and expects the top price to be capped ahead of the 40-year government bond auction on the 26th. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting was successfully passed, and expectations for an early lifting of the negative interest rate policy have receded, but expectations for future policy revisions remain, and the decline in interest rates is expected to be limited.

The expected yield range for the newly issued 10-year 371st bond is 0.72% to 0.75% (0.74% on the 22nd), and the December futures contract is 145.30 yen to 145.60 yen (145.31 yen on the 22nd). ).

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In nighttime futures trading, the December contract ended at 145.44 yen, up 13 sen from the daytime closing price on the 22nd.

Bank of Japan operation

Limit price operations to purchase an unlimited number of 10-year government bonds at a yield of 1% will be carried out every business day.Same operations will continue for the cheapest issues eligible for delivery (cheapest) used for settlement of bond futures.

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2023-09-24 22:31:00
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