Jakarta –
How stable is the Solar System? In relative human and historical terms, the Solar System is fairly stable. However, even a small effect of gravity can cause dramatic effects due to the chaos and complex nature of the forces involved. Researchers provide an idea of how easily the Solar System can be disturbed, and the explanation is interesting.
The Solar System could be threatened with chaos, even like the apocalypse, “only” with the average distance between Neptune and the Sun changed by 0.1%. This would make the probability of the Solar System chaotic ten times higher
Quoted from IFL Sciencethis explanation was accepted for publication in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society and can be read at ArXiv.
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One possible starting point for the instability of the Solar System is the smallest planet, Mercury. Perihelion (closest point on a planet’s orbit around the Sun) Mercury moves about 1.5 degrees every 1,000 years, a rate that is very close to Jupiter.
If the two fall in sync – at resonance – there is a one percent chance that Mercury will be pulled out of orbit and ejected from the Solar System or collide with Venus, the Sun, or even Earth over the next three to four billion years.
Allowing things to evolve naturally is well and good, but perhaps there is a way to create such instability and destabilize the Solar System.
Scientists imagine a passing star is a little too close. Mercury is too close to the Sun to feel it, but Neptune will feel it, and the disturbance will spread throughout the Solar System.
The effects of a 0.1% perturbation, the equivalent of 4.5 million kilometers in Neptune’s semi-main axis, could spread to Earth and Mars in just 20 million years. Disturbance of 10%, could mean catastrophe for our Earth and the Red Planet.
In the study, the team ran 2,880 simulations, and 960 of them had perturbations that were too small to measure. However, in four of them, Mercury hit Venus.
Not all of the death and destruction occurred in the other 1920 models, but there were 26 that ended in chaos ensuing. Many collisions between Mercury and Venus, one with Earth and Mars, crash into each other, and some places Uranus, Neptune, or Mercury completely discarded.
The team also estimates the chances of a star being close enough to cause all of that and we need not worry knowing that there are only about 20 chances over the next 100 billion years.
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