European banks are struggling technically. There was a lot going on in this sector, such as high capital market interest rates and problem banks.
This year, the banking sector is not in the leading group on the stock exchange. ING gained only 5% YTD, ABN Amro rose 8%. Van Lanschot Kempen, I will come back to that, stands out with a YTD gain of 25%.
Among its eastern neighbours, Commerzbank rose 8.5% this year, but Deutsche bank lost about 13%.
The picture is no different on the French stock market: BNP Parisbas is only 4.5% above the starting position of 2023, Credit Agricole is up 7.5%. With our southern neighbours, KBC booked a plus of 3.5% this year.
Underperformance banking sector
The Euro Stoxx Banks sector, which reflects the price trend of European banks, rose just under 7% in the first half of 2023.
By way of comparison, the European stock markets are almost all up more than 10% this year, some are even up 15%. A negative exception is the Brussels stock exchange, which is at -6%.
… except for one Dutch bank
From an investor’s perspective, virtually the entire banking sector is underperforming. This is not a crisis, but it is striking. Technically, we already saw the first signals of this in March.
Incidentally, there are also strong sectors that are interesting, such as tech, cars and retail.
This time I discuss the Euro Stoxx sector Banks, ING, ABN Amro, Van Lanschot Kempen, Deutsche bank, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, BNP Parisbas and KBC. Of all these European banks, only Van Lanschot Kempen is technically interesting.
Van Lanschot Kempen is an eternal takeover candidate, but according to IEX colleague Martin Crum can still stand on its own two feet. It sounds cryptic, but also fundamentally there is a good reason to look at the technical picture below.
Banking sector at the IEX Investors Day
On the IEX Investor Day, next Friday 30 June, colleague Wouter Slot and I will hold a seminar on the opportunities for the second half of 2023. The banking sector will also be discussed. I would like to cordially invite you to this.
A selection of the day’s program can be found here.
Euro Stoxx sector Banks lags behind
The Euro Stoxx Banks sector, which follows all major European banks, has been lagging behind for some time. The falling BOB indicator of the European banking sector, the blue sloping line, suggests underperformance (compared to the rest of the market).
Technically, there is also a neutral trend, with lower tops. In addition, the 200-day line is flattening out somewhat. It is positive that the index is still above the 200-day line, but that is also the only bright spot.
A fall below the support of 98.30 (the June 2 low) would confirm the weakness. Resistance is around 110.97 (the April 21 high).
ING has not yet given the green light
ING does not show a strong technical picture. ING weakened after the upward trend has broken downwards. Since then, the stock has been faltering. There is support at €9.59 (the bottom of March 24). Resistance has formed at $14.00 (the February 11, 2022 high).
The 200-day moving average shows a flat trend. This indicates a neutral technical condition.
ING’s falling BOB indicator suggests weaker performance compared to the rest of the market.
ABN Amro is dying
ABN Amro indicates technical weakness, now that lower price peaks are formed. This signals selling pressure. Previously, the upward trend was also broken downwards. A closing position below the support of €13.01 (the bottom of March 24) would further deteriorate the technical picture.
Resistance is at €16.98 (formed on January 10, 2020).
ABN Amro’s 200-day line is leveling off somewhat. This indicates a weakening technical condition.
The BOB curls downwards. That suggests a lower performance compared to the rest of the market.
Van Lanschot Kempen is doing fine
Van Lanschot Kempen has been at a standstill for a few months. But the higher bottoms around $25.30 indicate buyers are still active. Van Lanschot Kempen is doing well technically.
The stock has initial resistance around $29 (formed March 10). If the price breaks above that, the share can go to €33.
As long as the support at €25.30 (bottom of February 23) remains intact, we maintain a positive view.
Van Lanschot Kempen’s rising 200-day line points to a positive technical condition.
The upward direction of Van Lanschot Kempen’s BOB indicator suggests better performance compared to the rest of the market.
Deutsche Bank remains weak
Deutsche Bank is moving sideways between the $7.95 support (the March 24 bottom) and the $10.22 resistance (the April 21 high). This signals a balance between buyers and sellers.
The descending 200-day line, while Deutsche Bank’s share price has fallen below it, indicates a weakening technical condition.
The falling BOB indicator signals that Deutsche Bank is underperforming compared to the rest of the market.
The momentum is out at Commerzbank
Commerzbank forms the first lower peaks within the uptrend. These indicate selling pressure. The technical picture stagnates somewhat with this.
A drop below the $9.11 support (the May 19 bottom) would see further weakening. Resistance is around $11.06 (the April 21 high).
The rising trend of the 200-day moving average is leveling off somewhat. This indicates a slightly less technical condition.
Commerzbank’s BOB indicator is trending down again. That suggests a lower performance compared to the rest of the market.
Credit Agricole moves in a sideways price pattern
Credit Agricole moves within a sideways price pattern with support at €9.54 (the bottom of March 24) and resistance at €11.94 (formed on February 10). The outbreak will set the new direction.
The stock has fallen below its 200-day moving average again. This points to a lesser technical condition at Credit Agricole. In addition, the 200-day line is leveling off somewhat.
The sideways BOB indicator (blue line) indicates that Credit Agricole is performing almost in line with the market. The BOB indicator compares Credit Agricole’s price development with that of the market average.
BNP Paribas looks indeterminate
BNP Paribas has been moving violently up and down between the support of €40.67 (the bottom of July 15, 2022) and the resistance of €69.17 (formed on November 3, 2017) for some time now. The movements are quite erratic. The breakout outside the neutral range will provide more clarity about the further course of the price.
The distance between support and resistance is sufficient to trade the stock. So make short trips and get in and out on time.
The 200-day moving average of BNP Paribas shows an upward trend. This indicates a positive technical condition.
The BOB indicator (blue line) is trending downwards and indicates that BNP Paribas will slightly underperform the market.
KBC moves neutrally
KBC shows a neutral movement. The price movements between the support of €56.96 (bottom of May 19) and resistance of €67.10 (top of April 21) are getting smaller and smaller. Wait for a breakout from this triangle.
KBC’s 200-day line shows a flattening trend. This indicates a neutral technical condition.
BOB is silent and suggests that KBC is performing virtually the same as the rest of the market.
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2023-06-28 06:01:09
#Europese #banks #underperform #IEX.nl
