/nginx/o/2022/10/14/14898488t1h06cb.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1 "Europe will survive next winter, but the biggest concern is the following winter")
Europe relies on supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Europe and the UK bought LNG between March and September, an increase of 68% over the same period of the previous year. However, competition in the LNG market should be expected to be fierce and the situation could get complicated if the Chinese economy picks up speed.
“The return of Chinese LNG demand could cause problems for Europe’s ability to attract cargoes of LNG,” said Sindre Knutson, Rystad Energy’s vice president for gas and LNG.
There may also be some problems in the oil supply, despite the fact that economic growth will have slowed and the demand for oil has decreased. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Its Allies (OPEC +) has announced that as of November, world oil production will be reduced by two million barrels per day.
European countries have already pledged around € 553 billion in benefits to households and businesses to help them cope with their energy bills. However, these types of programs are not sustainable, especially if the prices remain high.
“Governments must develop worst-case scenarios in which energy prices remain consistently high for at least 2-4 years. In the current situation, it is a very expensive bet that is likely to fail, especially if prices do not go down,” said Giovanni Sgaravati. , Bruegel researcher.
Europe’s attempts to get rid of Russian energy cost another nuance: the transition to more environmentally friendly energy solutions. Carlos Torres Diaz, an analyst at Rystad Energy, told CNN that Europe’s green transition is currently on hold because energy security is a higher priority.
Several European countries have returned to using coal-fired power plants, the most damaging of all fossil fuels.
The energy crisis has led many to change their minds about “green energy”. In May, the European Commission revealed that a € 210 billion “REPowerEU” plan was developed, which envisages the elimination of Russian energy resources and an increase in the role of renewable energy resources in Europe.
Currently, the European Union hopes that by the end of the decade, renewable energy resources will provide 45% of all the energy needed for the blockade. This amount would also make it possible to reduce Europe’s dependence on other types of energy imports and genuinely strengthen the European Union’s energy independence.
