According to a leading Chinese specialist, the epidemic with the new lung disease in China may not stabilize until the end of April. “This is a very rough estimate,” said Zhong Nanshan, head of the Chinese government’s expert group. The peak of the outbreak across the country is expected to be reached by the end of February.
“Reaching the highest level does not mean the turning point,” the renowned medical doctor cautioned. However, he believes that the radical measures in China to contain the new coronavirus called Sars-CoV-2 worked. Due to the now returning wave of migrant workers after the Chinese New Year holiday, which was extended due to the virus, he “may not expect a large increase”. Very strict measures have been taken to control the flow of travel, Zhong Nanshan said in a video released yesterday from a conference call the day before.
Within one day, the number of newly detected infections increased again by 1,886 by Tuesday. The number of infections reached a total of 72,436, as reported by the Health Commission in Beijing. A further 98 deaths were reported. A total of 1,868 patients in mainland China have already died of the new type of lung disease called Covid-19. Most cases are counted in central China in the severely affected Hubei province.
Death rate is 2.3 percent
According to an analysis presented by China’s health authority, 2.3 percent of those infected with the new coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 die in the country. Elderly people and those with serious previous illnesses such as cardiovascular disease or diabetes continue to be affected.
For people over 80 years of age, the death rate calculated from the data available so far is just under 15 percent, the authority reported on Tuesday, meaning that an average of 15 out of 100 people in this age group in China die in China. In the group of ten to 39 year olds, 0.2 percent die, i.e. about two out of every 1,000 affected.
In the vast majority of cases – according to the health authority, more than 80 percent – people who have contracted the Covid 19 pathogen show only mild symptoms. Almost 14 percent develop severe symptoms such as shortness of breath, almost five percent life-threatening effects such as respiratory arrest, septic shock or multi-organ failure.
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Hospital chief died
For the first time, a hospital manager has fallen victim to the new lung disease. Liu Zhiming, director of Wuchang Hospital in Hubei’s provincial capital, Wuhan, died on Monday, the China News news agency reported. A medical colleague reported that the chief doctor was in good health and did not expect himself to die from the lung disease called Covid-19. On Friday, a 59-year-old nurse from the same hospital had succumbed to the virus.
So far, more than 1,700 doctors and nurses have been infected. By the end of last week, at least six helpers had died from it, as reported by state television CCTV. The vast majority of those affected were therefore deployed to the Hubei province, in whose capital Wuhan the virus had broken out.
The French government believes there is a risk of a pandemic developing. This is “both a working hypothesis and a serious danger,” said new health minister Olivier Veran to France Info radio. A pandemic is used when a disease spreads across countries or even continents. An epidemic is limited to one region.
Schoolchildren in Shanghai, meanwhile, have to study from home because the school buildings remain closed as a precaution against the spread of the virus. Online courses will be offered from March onwards.
542 cases detected on “Diamond Princess”
On the quarantined cruise ship “Diamond Princess”, which has been quarantined in Japan, the number of detected infections with the novel corona virus has risen again significantly. The virus was detected in 88 other people, the Japanese health minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday. 65 of them showed no symptoms of respiratory disease Covid-19.
In the meantime, 542 infections have already been detected on the ship. This is by far the most cases in a location outside of China. There were originally around 3,700 people from 56 countries on board the “Diamond Princess”, including eight Germans, according to the shipping company. There are still around 3,000 people on the ship, which is anchored off Yokohama. All have been tested for the novel corona virus, the Japanese Ministry of Health said. However, since not all test results are yet available, the number of infected people can continue to increase.
Because of the virus, the “Diamond Princess” was quarantined on February 5, and passengers were asked to stay in their cabins. The two-week quarantine period ends on (today) Wednesday. People who have not been diagnosed with the virus and who have had no close contact with the infected should then be allowed to disembark. According to the Ministry of Health, this should last from Wednesday to Friday. The quarantine is extended for the rest. Evidence shows that infected people are isolated in hospitals.
The USA had already flown around 300 US passengers of the “Diamond Princess” to their homeland on Monday without waiting for the end of the quarantine in Japan. In the United States, however, they are quarantined for another 14 days. The 40 US passengers who were proven to be infected had to stay in hospitals in Japan. A spokeswoman for the UK State Department in London said Tuesday that the government is organizing a flight home for the British on the ship given the difficult conditions on board. Italy, Canada, Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong have also announced that they will bring their citizens home. The Federal Foreign Office in Berlin is considering a return.
Delivery bottlenecks threaten
The President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, Jörg Wuttke, warned of a global bottleneck in antibiotics and other medicines if supply chain problems as a result of the epidemic are not resolved soon. He criticizes the 14-day quarantine ordered by the Beijing authorities for all new arrivals from abroad as unreasonable. The measure made it difficult to fly in experts for support and exacerbated the problems. Wuttke also highlighted difficulties the auto industry was facing due to the interruption of deliveries in China and increasing inventory levels. It had become clear that one had to make oneself more independent of China and that a “backup plan” was needed. (APA)
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