Emmanuel Macron still wants to tighten the screw

Preparing the French for an even harsher-than-expected test without going into defeatism: this is the delicate equation that is essential to Emmanuel Macron in preparation for his televised address scheduled for Monday evening just after 8pm. According to testimonies and confidences gathered at the top of the state, the President seems determined to ask for additional efforts in the face of the epidemic which is not weakening. “Those who expect the prospect of a way out of the crisis will be disappointed, a senior member of the executive told the JDD on Saturday. It will be more of a Churchillian speech.”

“Blood and Tears” Covid-19 version

Understand: “blood, sweat, and tears” Covid-19 version. In this third official address in a month, Macron should at the same time endorse the extension of the general confinement beyond the two weeks envisaged (“perhaps until the end of May, at least until the 15th”, according to a source close to the Élysée); reaffirm the imperative of limiting travel within and outside the country; postpone the reopening of schools to September; and temper the ardor of those who are already waiting for a gradual recovery in the economy.

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We are not considering the end of the crisis but to make it clear that the hardest part is ahead of us

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To prepare his speech, he met with foreign leaders, scientists and political figures, including François Bayrou and, yesterday, Jean-Pierre Chevènement. He must also exchange with his predecessors François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy. “His remarks must be serious and severe, general and concrete, confides one of his usual interlocutors. At this point, we are not considering the end of the crisis but making it clear to everyone that the hardest part is in front of us.”

He should go further in containment than our neighbors

His consultations of the week convinced the head of state to reaffirm and even amplify the requirement for containment, which according to experts is starting to produce effects against the disease. On Friday, the director of the WHO (whom Macron had heard on the phone the day before) issued an explicit warning to governments: “Lifting the restrictions too quickly could lead to a deadly resurgence of the pandemic.” In echo, the scientific council formed since the eruption of the coronavirus indicated this week having recommended to the government to go beyond the six weeks of confinement recommended at the start. Without however advancing on a date.

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Rather than extending every fortnight, it may be more reasonable to give a distant deadline

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In China, the confinement will have lasted two and a half months – without ruling out a resumption if the epidemic re-accelerates. The President of the Italian Council has just postponed to 3 May the end of the confinement started on 9 March, and his Spanish counterpart has extended the state of emergency until 10 May. According to several insiders, Macron should go even further. “Rather than extending it every two weeks, it may be more reasonable to give a long deadline, even if it shortens if things get better,” said a heavyweight. “His appearances on television must not become Chinese torture for the French,” adds one of those who regularly speak with him.

Health authorities no longer speak of “peak” but of “plateau”

Friday, during the audioconference that Edouard Philippe held with the presidents of the two chambers and the leaders of the parliamentary groups, the president of the Assembly, Richard Ferrand, macronist of the first circle, paved the way for a significant lengthening of the confinement highlighting the dangers of the calendar. “The month of May is a series of dates that favors gatherings, explained Ferrand, according to one of the participants. How can we imagine that the demonstrations of May 1 are maintained? Then the ceremonies of May 8, where the elders gather in front of the war memorials? And then there is the Ascension, with RTT and long weekends. To let that happen would be irresponsible. ” No one objected.

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On the two thirds of the territory, our fellow citizens do not feel – or little – concerned because they do not have patients around them

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If the President accepts this argument, one of the difficulties of his speech tomorrow will be to gain buy-in. “On two thirds of the territory, our fellow citizens do not feel – or little – concerned because they do not have sick people around them, observes an adviser. They do not see why they should stay at home without being able work. You have to make them understand that everyone is concerned. ” Macron is said to have been impressed by doctors’ forecasts for Italy and their announcements of an “inevitable second wave” in France. Everyone has noted: the health authorities no longer speak of a “peak” to describe the highest point of contamination but of a “plateau” …

The track of increased border controls

“Now is not the time to relax our efforts,” he said to one of his interlocutors. He could have added, as in his last speech: “Whatever it costs.” Because the announced hardening will have consequences in cascade. First, there is no release in sight: police checks, exit permits and sanctions for offenders will not be relaxed. Again, the idea would be to add more. During his conference call with the social partners on Friday, he spoke of a “closure of the borders of the Schengen area until September”.

Clearly: increased controls on entry and exit at the gates of Europe to prevent any new influx of infected people. Can this limitation concern internal movements within Europe? “The President only spoke about the borders of Schengen, but it seemed clear that his remarks also targeted traffic between our countries,” said one of the participants in the meeting. Spain is already planning to seal off to deter tourists. However, France is the first destination in the world; it would be logical for her to do the same.

No back to school before September

Then there will likely be no back to school before summer – so not until September. In any case for primary and nursery schools, whose pupils cannot comply with the famous “barrier measures”. Government sources say that “most likely is a general postponement to the end of the summer”, from small classes to universities – especially as the cancellation of bac exams is already in effect.

Ditto for municipal elections: maintained in extremis in baroque conditions, the ballot remains to be completed in some 5,000 municipalities. Édouard Philippe is expected to decide on May 23, but no one plans to hold a second round before the fall.

The emergency plan prepared in Bercy has already lapsed

Another mechanical effect: the economic rescue plan prepared in Bercy in recent days has already lapsed. The amending budget drawn up by Bruno LeMaire and Gérald Darmanin which will be presented to the Council of Ministers on Wednesday was designed for confinement for six weeks. As soon as the restrictions go beyond the end of April, “we will have to add more,” concludes an adviser.

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With such a puzzle, don’t expect it to be short

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In its current form, the project provides 100 billion euros in aid. Knowing that a month’s confinement represents 75 billion euros in lost revenue for the economy, this amount (which does not include measures to support businesses) will be exceeded. A fortiori if the deconfinement – when it comes – is very progressive. “At least, the pipes will be laid, it will suffice to increase the flow”, we relativize to Bercy. And if Macron decided to nationalize large companies in danger, “the device is ready”.

But the worsening economic situation, felt by an increasing number of French people, can only worsen the climate and reinforce the desire for a return to normalcy. Eight million workers are now on short-time working, their compensation costs the state nearly 1 billion euros per day … Faced with such figures, Macron will have to find the right words. “With such a puzzle, don’t expect it to be short,” an advisor tries to smile. The usual twenty minutes will not be too much.

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