Kiel (dpa) – The people of Schleswig-Holstein will re-elect the state parliament this Sunday. According to the polls, the CDU of Prime Minister Daniel Günther (CDU) can count on a clear victory. A coalition of CDU, Greens and FDP currently governs in the north. The government has high approval ratings; Günther personally is also popular with sympathizers from other parties. Polls see him as the most popular head of government in Germany. The CDU and FDP support a new edition of the Jamaica coalition, but after the election it could also be enough for black-green or – much narrower – for black-yellow.
After their victories in the federal elections and most recently in Saarland, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD is now threatened with defeat again. The CDU, on the other hand, is looking to Kiel with hope after its last election failure. Party leader Friedrich Merz can use a success, also with a view to the important state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in a week. If Günther stays at the helm on the Förde, his weight in the Union should continue to grow.
Polling stations are open today from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. A good 2.3 million voters are allowed to cast their votes. 16 parties compete with state lists. The same number of direct candidates are elected in the 35 constituencies. Five years ago, voter turnout was 64.2 percent. The first forecast of the outcome of the election is expected shortly after 6 p.m.
Prime Minister Günther (48) has ruled in Kiel since 2017 with his Jamaica alliance. The most recent polls put the CDU at 36 to 38 percent well ahead of the SPD at 18 to 20 percent and the Greens at 16 to 18 percent. The FDP followed with 7 to 9 percent. The AfD was 5 to 6 percent – the South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), which as a party of the Danish minority is already exempt from the five percent clause, was between these values.
The Greens were getting closer and closer to the SPD. If they could advance to second place in the state elections for the first time, that would be a great success for them and a bitter setback for the SPD.
Günther will cast his vote in Eckernförde, SPD top candidate Thomas Losse-Müller (49) in nearby Bistensee and Finance Minister Monika Heinold (63) as the Green Party’s top candidate in Kiel. Both had announced the goal of replacing Günther.
Before the election, the CDU and FDP spoke out in favor of relaunching the Jamaica coalition, while the Greens and SSW made no commitments. According to surveys, however, it would be enough for a two-party coalition between the CDU and the Greens, possibly also with the FDP. During the election campaign, SPD top candidate Losse-Müller expressed hope for an alliance with the Greens and SSW or with the Greens and the FDP.
The SSW would be willing to help govern. The top candidate Lars Harms (57) did not name the preferred partner before the election. Incidentally, his party has shown in the opposition that it can also push through demands in this role. Greens lead candidate Heinold tried to score points in the election campaign with the argument that a government without her party and especially black and yellow would mean a fatal step backwards for the country – at the expense of climate protection, energy transition and biodiversity.
The biggest deficit of the SPD’s top candidate Losse-Müller is a lack of awareness. The ex-Greens was in the state government of the SPD, Greens and SSW (2012 to 2017) Secretary of State for Finance – under Minister Heinold – and then Head of State Chancellery. After the 2017 election, he worked as a management consultant. It was only in 2020 that he switched from the Greens to the SPD, whose state chairman Serpil Midyatli then chose him as the top candidate the following year.
The election campaign was overshadowed by the Ukraine war. Differences between the parties were revealed, among other things, in the expansion of renewable energies, day-care center fees and social policy. Günther had to do without live appointments for more than a week due to a corona infection. Only on Wednesday did he start again with two triels in one day – with Heinold and Losse-Müller.
With the election, more than 20 MPs will leave the state parliament, including the President of the Parliament and former Interior Minister Klaus Schlie (CDU/67). With the parliamentary director Hans-Jörn Arp (CDU/69), one of the most influential members of parliament did not stand again. Arps Green colleague Marret Bohn will also no longer be there: the 57-year-old wants to work as a doctor again.
© dpa-infocom, dpa:220507-99-197083/3
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