El Niño Forecast Sparks Concerns of ‘Foodflation’ Emergency: Probability of Occurrence Between July and September at 80%

El Niño, which raised the global temperature to an all-time high seven years ago, returns. The world is nervous about the return of this phenomenon that raises the global temperature and causes drought in South Asia and Australia. In particular, concerns are being raised that food prices, which barely calmed down after soaring last year in the aftermath of the war, will jump again. Some items, such as sugar and olive oil, are already showing record growth.

Recently, international meteorological and scientific organizations have put forward a series of forecasts that El Niño is imminent. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) announced on the 12th (local time) that a Kelvin wave, which is said to be a precursor to El Niño, is forming near the equator and moving warm water from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific. El Niño refers to a phenomenon in which the eastern Pacific sea surface temperature is 0.5 degrees higher than normal for more than 5 months. Previously, on the 3rd, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted that the probability of El Niño appearing from May to July reaches 60% and increases to 80% from July to September. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also raised the probability that El Niño will occur before July and continue until the northern hemisphere winter from 60% to 82% on the 11th.

It is because of the inducing effect of El Niño that international organizations are keenly aware of the timing of the occurrence of El Niño, a natural phenomenon that comes every two to seven years. El Niño raises the global temperature by about 0.2 degrees and causes drought in parts of Australia, Indonesia and South Asia, and heavy rainfall in the southern United States and eastern Africa. 2016, when El Niño last appeared, was recorded as the hottest year due to overlapping greenhouse gas effects. Climate change is maximizing the temperature rise effect of El Niño, but even though La Niña, which has the effect of suppressing temperature rise, has continued for three years since 2020, recent abnormally high temperatures have been followed one after another, raising concerns. The WMO pointed out, “If an El Niño occurs, warming will accelerate and global temperatures will be more likely to break records.”

Above all, experts warn that we should pay attention to the impact of this El Niño and the climate crisis on food prices. International food prices, compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), have managed to decline after hitting an all-time high in March last year in the aftermath of the war between Russia and Ukraine and unusually high temperatures. The problem is that India and Southeast Asian countries, which are vulnerable to El Niño, and European countries, which are currently experiencing drought, are the main producers, and the recent rise in food prices has been unusual. According to FAO, sugar prices last month were the highest in 11 years and 6 months, while rice prices rose 2.5% from the previous month and 17.8% from the previous year. International olive oil prices hit their highest level in 26 years due to a drought in Spain, the largest producer. Grointelligence, an agricultural analysis company, was concerned that “El Niño could potentially have an impact on food production in the Americas and Africa and South Asia.”