The political situation in Chile is experiencing a moment of particular tension. It is not only about the approval, by the Chamber of Deputies, of a reform that would allow citizens to withdraw 10% of the capital accumulated in their pension funds, but also of the low popularity and disorder in the ranks of the officialism.
Specifically: Sebastián Piñera’s government is not having a good time.
If we add to this the growing number of voices that not only doubt the president’s ability to order his sector, but rightly question the viability of his government, the picture is even more bleak. Anthropologist Pablo Ortúzar, one of the new intellectuals on the right, said on Radio Infinita on Wednesday July 15: “I am not clear that Piñera can finish his mandate; the president is alone, isolated in a state that is falling apart “.
A less extreme reading, but equally not very encouraging, are made by other figures from that political sector. In an interview with the weekly The Clinic, political scientist Daniel Mansuy assured that the constitutional process, the questioning of the AFPs and the potential rupture of the right-wing coalition could leave Piñera as “the gravedigger of presidentialism in Chile.”
The analyst Patricio Navia, meanwhile, wrote in El Líbero that he is “Quite clear that the Chilean right, as we knew it, is dead” and that the government “sails aimlessly”.
Few alternatives
As the government lies helpless, it faces equally unarmed opposition. The journalist and political analyst Ascanio Cavallo defined it this way on Tele13 Radio: “Chile Vamos (the ruling coalition) was left as the opposition, fragmented and without offering governance. Therefore, we are in a moment with no alternatives. ”
Is that so? “It is a fact that the President is under considerable pressure. However, the government is not responsible for the health crisis or the social crisis of the past year: of the last 30 years, 24 has governed the center-left, ”says Andreas Klein, political scientist and representative in Chile of the German foundation Konrad Adenauer..
For the specialist, an eventual departure from Piñera “would not automatically mean that the left would win the new elections.” In her opinion, the responsibility now is to find solutions from the same system. “I think President Piñera will end his term and that this is also correct from a democratic point of view,” he says. The great current problem of Chilean politics is its dispersion. There are no longer large compact blocks as in the return to democracy, but atomized sectors that seek agreements under certain circumstances.
“The problem of the opposition in Chile has several dimensions. One is generational. Then there is a group that rejects the post-dictatorship transitional agreements, which they consider spurious, and then another group that sees them as consensuses of governance. There are also those who value political representation institutions such as parties or unions and who consider them mere instruments of stifling the energy of social change. None of these dimensions of opposition achieves articulation and it would be reasonable to expect that the constitutional process could compel them to dialogue, but that remains to be seen, “he tells DW. Mario Alvarez, Doctor in Political Communication from the University of Leeds and academic from the Alberto Hurtado University.
Temporary union
The opposition managed to join forces in voting for 10% of the AFPs, something that had been little seen during the current government.
Does that alliance have a future or is it circumstantial? “It is true that the opposition is currently united behind this issue, but the motivation of each of the parties seems to me to be partially different. While some prefer to abolish AFPs, others do not seem to want to completely question that system. So I don’t think we are now witnessing the rise of a united opposition bloc. The long-term political goals are too different, “says Klein.
The problems derived from the coronavirus crisis have once again unleashed street protests and questioned the efficiency of the State to respond to the needs of Chileans.
Although this apparent lack of alternatives that give governance is a new phenomenon in post-dictatorship Chile, Klein is putting on cold cloths. “Chile faces great challenges: we must overcome the health crisis and start the economy. 2021 is a year with many elections and a Constitution must be rewritten. I think it is time to break with the classic thinking of the traditional blocks and establish a central force that unites the economic experience with social responsibility ”, he estimates.
Álvarez, for his part, warns of the risks involved not only in delegitimizing political activity, but also in the inaction of the State.
“Piñera has already resigned to govern. You can remain in office, but you are not ruling. The problem with this is that institutions owe their legitimacy, among other things, to their effectiveness, and if democracy does not prove to be minimally effective in solving life problems, its very existence is put at risk ”, he maintains.
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