Source: Hehe Futures Author: Hehe Futures
Research report text
1. Market review of this week
(1) Futures market analysis
This week, the main force of natural rubber RU2305 fluctuated at a high level.Domestic and foreign macro expectations are positive, domesticrubberProduction cuts support raw material prices. As of the close of this Friday, the closing price of the main contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from last Friday, and a weekly increase of -0.81%.
(2) Spot market analysis
Domestic natural rubber market
The price of domestic natural rubber market fluctuated upwards. As of December 15, the average daily price of the natural rubber market was 12,391 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%.
Spot market conditions as of January 12:
North China market: State-run full latex is quoted at 12,850 yuan/ton, standard 2 is quoted at 11,050 yuan/ton, Vietnam 3L is quoted at 12,050 yuan/ton, and Taisan tobacco sheet is quoted at 14,800 yuan/ton, actual orders are negotiated.
Shandong market: State-run full latex is quoted at 12,500 yuan/ton, standard 2 is quoted at 11,050 yuan/ton, Vietnam 3L is quoted at 11,700 yuan/ton, and Thai Sanyan is quoted at 14,400 yuan/ton.
East China market: State-run full latex is quoted at 12,350 yuan/ton, standard 2 is quoted at 11,050 yuan/ton, Vietnam 3L is quoted at 11,650 yuan/ton, and Taisan tobacco sheet is quoted at 14,400 yuan/ton.
Southwest market: whole milk at 12,450 yuan/ton (tax included), Yunnan private 5# at 10,500 yuan/ton (tax included), Yunnan private 10# at 10,350 yuan/ton (tax included), 20# tire rubber at 10,350 yuan/ton (tax included) 10550 yuan / ton, real order negotiation.
2. Domestic rubber production decreased and imports increased
Domestic rubber production areas have basically stopped cutting in December. The Thai production area was affected by rainy weather during the week, which relatively supported the price of raw materials. Domestic imports continued to grow. According to customs statistics, China’s natural and synthetic rubber imports in December were 76.2 The cumulative import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in 2022 will be 7.36 million tons, an increase of 8.7% from 6.769 million tons in 2021.
In terms of inventory, as of January 12, the natural rubber futures inventory was 178,770 tons, an increase of 2.88% from the previous month.
Figure 2: China’s Natural Rubber Futures Inventory
3. Inflation in the United States has fallen, and interest rate hikes have slowed down; the domestic economy is improving
The CPI in the United States rose by 6.5% year-on-year in December, estimated at 6.5%, and the previous value was 7.1%, which was the first month-on-month decline since May 2020; Fed Harker said after the release of the data that it is time to adjust the future rate hike to 25% basis point, the era of super-scale interest rate hikes has passed. The fall in inflation this time is undoubtedly a positive signal. The era of high interest rate hikes is over. Whether there will be interest rate cuts in the future still needs to pay attention to the US CPI data.
The domestic macro market is improving. In the post-epidemic era, economic vitality has further recovered. Recently, the tourism industry has risen rapidly during the recovery period of the new crown infection, and the catering industry has gradually recovered. In December, the official manufacturing PMI continued to fall, and it was in the contraction range for three consecutive months. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 31, in December, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 47.0%, down 1.0 points from the previous month percentage points, lower than the critical point, and the production and operation prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has dropped from the previous month. However, as the economy recovers, future demand may increase.
4. The tire factory enters the holiday mode
Some enterprises in Dongying and Weifang areas entered the state of “Spring Festival holiday” around January 10, and some enterprises gradually started finishing work. This week, the operating rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 47.37%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.46%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.30%; the operating rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 43.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.29%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.79%.
5. The data of the auto market in December is positive, and the future can be expected
With the basic end of the epidemic control, the auto market achieved the long-awaited surge in December. The pent-up demand in November was released in mid-to-late December. The “New Ten Measures” have a positive effect on the market and consumer mentality. Consumers are full of expectations and confidence in returning to their pre-epidemic living conditions after opening up. In January, due to the expiry of some policies such as the car purchase tax in the overall market, and the Spring Festival holiday time to guide consumer demand, the industry’s terminal prices continued to decline, stimulating demand and consumers’ desire to buy, and the auto market surged in the past two weeks It is also inevitable to drive the strong growth of the market.
Since the beginning of December was the epidemic period, there was still an increase in the beginning of January compared to the same period in December, but in the next few weeks there will be a more pronounced decrease in the month-on-month and year-on-year. A good start in January every year is the direction of joint efforts of local governments and car companies. However, because dealers’ inventories are still high, the replenishment efforts before the Spring Festival will not be particularly large, so the wholesale and retail sales in January are generally low. The market in February should pick up obviously, and there will be a wave of entry-level consumers buying cars in the auto market after the festival. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of passenger cars in December were 2.125 million and 2.265 million, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous month, and a 9% increase in sales from the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% and 6.7%. The domestic sales volume of automobiles was 1.31 million, an increase of 14.2% month-on-month and a decrease of 25.3% year-on-year.
6. Natural rubber market overview and outlook
Domestic rubber cuts stopped in December, and Southeast Asian production areas are about to stop cutting. The production of raw materials has been reduced, and the inventory pressure has eased compared with the previous period. The supply side has provided some support; but at the beginning of the new year, downstream tire factories have finished stocking, and they are enthusiastic about raw material purchases. As the Spring Festival approaches, tire factories are on holiday one after another, and the start of work is low. The auto market is performing well, which may boost demand. The release of US CPI data is in line with market expectations. There is a high probability of raising interest rates by 25BP at the end of January, and domestic and foreign macro markets are gradually recovering.
Risk points: volatility in the crude oil market, changes in tire start-ups, speculation about Fed rate hikes.
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