Ukraine’s difficult relationship with the West
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The West should not rest assured that Ukraine’s orientation toward the model of Western democracies is irreversible.
A society is growing in Ukraine, which feels itself existentially connected with Western democratic values, and this makes it even more disappointed in the indifferent attitude of the West, writes in the pages of the Swiss edition The New Zurich Times publicist Richard Herzinger.
No trust in the West
After the victorious Revolution of Dignity in 2013/14, Ukraine has clearly embarked on a course towards European-Atlantic integration and, accordingly, a final breakaway from Moscow’s sphere of influence, which Putin’s Russia wants to significantly strengthen in the course of realizing its neo-imperial ambitions. But even if – or precisely because – influential political and social forces in Ukraine today continue to feel existentially connected with Western democratic values, doubts about the reliability of the promises made by the West are growing among them. Ukraine feels that the West is pushing it away and getting off with promises – Europe wants to keep the door open for the fastest possible “normalization” of its relations with Russia.
“A series of recent events, depressing from the Ukrainian point of view, contributed to this gradual process of alienation,” Herzinger notes. “The massive deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and in Crimea in the spring brought with it an acute danger of an open invasion of the country. But the EU was unable to make up its mind. to toughen his position towards the Kremlin. German Foreign Minister Maas brushed aside the supporters of such a tougher line, calling them “smart guys”, whose “confrontational screams” should not be joined. Berlin and Brussels, in his opinion, rather want “a dialogue and good neighborly relations with Russia. “
Threat of war
The fact that Putin ultimately did not give his troops a final order to march does not reassure anyone in Ukraine. Rather, the maneuver is seen as a kind of logistical dress rehearsal for the upcoming invasion – and as a massive intimidation attempt by which the Kremlin wants to bring the country down. At the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference in Kiev, which took place in mid-September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy unequivocally answered the question of whether he considered it possible for Russia to openly war against Ukraine in the coming years. Putin has already presented an ideological pretext for this in public, when in a speech replete with large-scale falsifications of history recently, he declared Russians and Ukrainians – as well as Belarusians – “essentially one nation.”
“Threats for Ukraine are indeed escalating,” the author of the article believes. “Not wishing to make even the slightest concessions in the negotiations on Donbass, Moscow is de facto speeding up the annexation of the occupied eastern Ukrainian territories. So, since 2019, about 600 thousand inhabitants of the illegal“ people’s republics ” Donetsk and Luhansk received Russian citizenship and, accordingly, were allowed to vote in the recent elections to the State Duma. annexation in 2014 settled about half a million Russians. “
Few prospects
Recently, Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid stunned the Ukrainian leadership by announcing at a YES conference that Ukraine may need another twenty years to meet Copenhagen’s criteria for EU membership. This was a particularly strong blow, since the Baltic countries are considered the most ardent supporters of Ukraine in the Union.
The fact that the Nord Stream 2 deal was negotiated without Ukraine’s participation is perceived in Kiev as a flagrant violation of the principle proclaimed by the West not to negotiate Ukraine without Ukraine. The hasty and chaotic withdrawal of the United States and its allies from Afghanistan and the shift in Biden’s strategic priority towards Asia also fuel subconscious fears of being abandoned by the United States in an emergency. In the circles of the Zelenskiy administration, voices have recently begun to be heard suggesting rapprochement with China as an alternative to an exclusive orientation towards the West.
“However, excessive corruption really remains the Achilles heel of the young Ukrainian democracy,” Herzinger notes. “And skepticism about how serious the Zelensky government, as well as the entire political elite of the country, takes about their declared will to institutional reform is fully justified. however, the energy of an active civil society remains unshakable. It acts as an engine for democratization in all spheres of society when it is necessary to push the government and state bodies to a higher pace of reform. Here a young generation of true democrats is growing up who in the medium term can get to the political levers of power. “
Nevertheless, the West should not be complacent about the fact that Ukraine’s orientation towards the model of Western democracies is irreversible. Therefore, it would be frivolous to treat her with arrogance. As bankrupt as Ukrainian democracy is, defending it against Putin’s imperial authoritarianism is critical to the future of a democratic Europe as a whole.
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