NEW YORK— A long-expected increase in deaths from coronavirus has begun in the United States, primarily in southern and western states, according to data on the pandemic.
The daily death toll had dropped for months even in states like Florida and Texas, where there were sharp increases in cases and hospitalizations, and daily contagion figures in the country have broken records several times lately.
Scientists had warned that this situation would not last. Coronavirus death, when it occurs, usually occurs several weeks after infection. Experts predicted that as cases and hospitalizations increased, the same would happen at some point with deaths. The forecast is coming true.
“It is increasing accordingly. And it’s increasing when forecast, ”said William Hanage, an infectious disease researcher at Harvard University.
According to an Associated Press analysis of Johns Hopkins University data, the weekly moving average of reported daily deaths in the United States has risen from 578 two weeks ago to 664 on July 10, still well below the peaks of April. Daily reported deaths increased in 27 states over that span, but in most of those states the average is less than 15 deaths per day. A smaller group of states is driving the national increase in deaths.
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California reports an average of 91 deaths a day, followed by Texas with 66 and significant increases in Florida, Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey and South Carolina. The increase in New Jersey is believed to be due in part to its less frequent reports of probable deaths.
Florida set a record 496 deaths in a week, an average of 71 deaths daily, it was reported Saturday. Florida’s weekly average three weeks ago was 30 per day.
The impact is already felt by families who lost loved ones and also by health workers who tried to save them.
Rublas Ruiz, an intensive care nurse in Miami, burst into tears during a recent birthday dinner with his wife and daughter. He said he was overwhelmed by the number of sick people who have died in his unit.
“I counted 10 in less than four days in our ICU and stopped counting because there were so many,” said the nurse at Kendall Regional Medical Center.
The virus has killed more than 130,000 people in the United States and more than half a million worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University, although the actual numbers are believed to be much higher.
The researchers predict that death rates will continue to rise for several weeks, although not as dramatically as in March and April, for various reasons.
First, testing was extremely limited early in the pandemic, and it is now clear that unrecognized infections were spreading on public transportation, nursing homes, and other places before what happened was known. Now testing has increased and the magnitude of the outbreaks is better understood.
Second, many people have changed their behavior, and the use of the mask has become much more common in some places. And although there is still no vaccine, it improves the treatment of the sick in hospitals.
Another tragic factor is that fatal new viruses often attack vulnerable populations such as the elderly or people weakened by other disorders in the first place. That means, at least in the Northeast, that “many of the vulnerable people are already dead,” said Perry Halkitis, dean of the faculty of public health at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
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