Overseas the 1st – Published on 04/12/2020 at 13:59, Updated 4/12/2020 at 10:31 PM
Simple step or sustainable trend? Statistics show that, in recent days, the number of coronavirus cases in the Overseas Territories has grown less rapidly than before, except in Mayotte. On April 11, 1,078 confirmed cases and 19 deaths had been recorded since the appearance of the virus. Explanation in several graphs.
On the other hand, in several territories, we have noted for several days that there has been little or no new confirmed case:
- New Caledonia (18 cases): the last positive test announcement dates back to April 4.
- Guadeloupe (143 cases, 8 deaths): no new case announced since April 9.
- Saint-Martin / Saint-Barthélémy (39 cases, two deaths): an additional positive case since April 8.
- Polynesia (53 cases): Two new cases since April 8
- Guyana (86 cases): on April 10, two additional cases were announced. No case found on April 11.
- Martinique (157 cases, 8 deaths): three new cases and two additional deaths announced since April 8.
- Saint-Pierre and Miquelon (one case): No new case since April 4.
- Wallis and futuna : no cases reported.
However, nothing indicates that the peak of the epidemic is reached and great caution is required of all. Is it a simple plateau or a trend that will continue over time? Here we provide you with factual data which does not predict future developments.
Since the appearance of the first cases, Overseas the 1st recorded the evolution of the number of cases daily. Look at this curve:
Guadeloupe and Martinique: slowdown
The curves for Guadeloupe and Martinique show that the contaminations are less strong than a week ago:
French Guiana: an evolution by stages
In Guyana, the curve of the number of cases shows a regular evolution with more steps.
The meeting
For Reunion, which has the highest number of confirmed cases of coronavirus (388 to 11 April) and which is also the most populated overseas department, the curve has also changed less rapidly in the past week.
Mayotte: “worrying situation”
In his opinion published on April 10, the Scientific Council set up by the government, described the situation in Mayotte as “of particular concern“On April 12, the 101st French department recorded 203 cases of coronavirus and the curve did not flatten, unlike most other overseas territories:
Figures to be handled with caution
These data are obviously to be used with caution. These are only cases confirmed by screening tests. However, the Scientific Council insisted well in its opinion of April 8: in Overseas, it is necessary “test, test, test”. Scientists also said “The epidemic in the overseas territories will worsen in the coming weeks”. They agree that the peak of the epidemic will occur there after that which will be observed in Hexagonal France.
The overseas territories have indeed recorded the first cases of coronavirus with a lag of several weeks compared to France (see here our chronology). Containment measures, on the other hand, took place at the same time in France and in the overseas territories, on March 17th. Air transport has been reduced to a minimum, arrivals to territories placed in the fortnight, in order to reduce the risk of imported cases.
At this stage, nothing makes it possible to specify if this relative flattening of the curve of the number of cases in the Overseas will be durable or if it is about a stage. Only certainty, the Scientific Council “considers it essential to maintain strict confinement in the overseas territories, until the end of the epidemic peak”.
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