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Published on: 03/12/2020 17:27
A thousand cases a day. This seems to be the watershed number that will allow us to begin easing some measures against Coronavirus. “If we get there under a thousand new cases a day we are in a situation of relative tranquility and some restrictions can be reduced, “he told Adnkronos Salute Matteo Bassetti, director of the Infectious Diseases Clinic of the San Martino hospital in Genoa and a member of the Covid-19 crisis unit of Liguria. “But we cannot make mistakes of the past. Basically we must conduct vigilant conduct, with careful concern but without panic or fear.” “If you go below the psychological threshold of 1000 cases a day, you can go back to doing some activities without ‘slouching’. Well, let’s not make this mistake “, concludes Bassetti. For now, however, he adds” we cannot say that the emergency is over “.
Same numbers also for the epidemiologist Francesco Forastiere. “The epidemic curve seems to have slowed its rise” but we are not out of the emergency, we will only be so when the number of new cases per day is zero. It is reasonable to think that, if the system of buffers and contact tracing works, a reasonable threshold to say that we are out of danger is 1,000 cases a day. Only once we get below this figure can we begin to consider the epidemic in decline, “the professor at Imperial Collage in London and scientific director of the journal ‘Epidemiology and prevention’ told Adnkronos Salute.
Yesterday, the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, in his communication to Parliament on the strategic vaccination plan, said that “to date, 320 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants are registered in our country, this figure must be raised to 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants”. According to Forastiere “these figures do not say much, perhaps they are connected to the logarithm used by the ISS-Ministry of Health monitoring”. But the epidemiologist cites the Calabria case: “Why was this Region in the red zone even though it didn’t have many cases? Because it has problems in tracking and in the ability to do tests – observes Forastiere – So we can also find a ‘limit’ threshold of positive cases daily so to say that we are out of the emergency, but this number must be linked to an efficient system of controls. Otherwise, numbers remain on paper. For now we still have a long way to go “.
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