For the first time, however, since the beginning of the pandemic, Sweden lowers the limit on gatherings to 8 people. So far, the Scandinavian country has implemented a much less restrictive strategy than those of other European countries in the fight against coronavirus. Until now, the limit was set, depending on the case, between 50 and 300 people. The squeeze will begin on November 24, a measure made “necessary” by the growth in the number of infections, Premier Stefan Lofven said at a press conference. A high number of infections which, however, has as a positive counterpart a low number of deaths. What happened?
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The graphs that we will report below demonstrate what was the trend of the pandemic in Sweden and Italy during the first and second wave. It is possible to monitor them through the site www.worldmeters.info/it. As we will see, the difference is also considerable during the summer, when in Italy the infections were reduced to almost zero, while in the Scandinavian country they continued.
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From the graphs it is possible to see one thing: in Italy the first wave hit hard, with a sharp surge in cases and victims. The management, with a stringent generalized lockdown, recognized as effective internationally and by the Swedes themselves through the mouth of the same Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, has allowed Italy to zero out the infections or reduce them to almost zero in June and for the whole ‘summer.
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All this while in Sweden, a country that from the beginning has been hostile to the use of the mask and blocks, the first cases of coronavirus were seen only in the summer. But it is in the second wave that the most important differences can be seen. In Sweden this autumn there was a sharp surge in infections, as well as in the rest of Europe and the world.
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The number of deaths has also undergone a marked increase (and this thanks to the control and isolation of retirement homes and in the RSA where, during the first wave, there were 54% of total death cases), but as we can see from the graphs, the level of deaths (10 on 13 November, compared to 115 on 15 April last) is decidedly lower than those recorded in Italy. Why?
Come The Economist writes, in the Scandinavian country a “light touch” was used. No closure and strong restrictions, but a stop to gatherings and great promotion, towards the population, on the rules of behavior at the sanitary and social level. The initial deaths, of which the vast majority among the very elderly, were proportionally more than in Finland and Norway, which instead implemented lockdowns. But in Sweden, unlike many other European countries, there is no significant second wave in terms of deaths. According to The Economist, it’s due to extensive testing capability and effective contact tracing. In addition, Sweden has invested in the health system with a 300% upgrade, a conversion of military helicopters into ambulance wings and a strengthening of intensive care. Nonetheless, Tegnell warned that the nation was at a “critical juncture” and called it “futile and immoral” to pursue herd immunity, which some critics said had been the unspoken goal of his ‘no’ to lockdown.
A model that anticipates the times
But Sweden had prepared in time. It had already done so in 2005 by studying a model that could allow the country to act in time and quickly in the event of a pandemic. It did so following the outbreak of the H5N1 avian flu outbreak 15 years ago. In that case, Sweden had drafted “the first national pandemic plan which has since undergone several revisions”. A first, in 2008, “to prepare for the 2009 swine flu pandemic”: the plan provides for the formation of a National Pandemic Group (NPG) in the event of a possible pandemic. The group involves several Swedish government agencies and defines the role of each agency.
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In the risk and impact assessments of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency “The Swedish crisis management expert, the risk of Sweden being hit by a major pandemic in the future was rated as” high “with a” catastrophic “impact on human health and the economy. They believed that a future pandemic it would have been inevitable within 5-50 years ”.
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In the 2019 Global Health Security Index of the “most prepared” countries in the world for an epidemic or pandemic published by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Sweden was ranked 7th overall. Sweden received high rankings for preventing the emergence of a new pathogen, early detection and reporting of an outbreak of international concern and with a low-risk environment. However, the Swedish health system received a lower score, wondering if it was sufficient and robust enough to treat the sick and protect health workers.
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The simulation
Always according to report, in 2013 the Swedish Civil Emergencies Agency studied Sweden’s ability to cope with a pandemic through a simulation in which severe bird flu infects one third of the population, of which 190,000 people become seriously ill with a maximum estimate of 10 thousand victims. The conclusion: “Sweden was generally well prepared, with pandemic plans both nationally and regionally, but that the health system would be the weak link.” According to the report, hospitals were also sufficiently equipped, albeit with a level of the number of intensive care units much lower than the European average. Yet Sweden has moved; so much so that the Swedish army has been busy transforming an exhibition space into a potentially operational covid hospital as early as March.
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Closures and no masks
The management of the pandemic followed a principle and is related to the sense of responsibility of the population. “Here – explains Alessandro Modia Rore, Italian and airline pilot in Sweden, resident in Malmö – at the age of 18 children leave home, unlike Italy, grandparents live on their own and this social difference has certainly influenced their ability to adopt one of the principles that Tegnell has always pushed, social distancing ». In his account there is the fact that “concerts have been closed and fans have been banned from entering the stadium, as in the rest of the world, but bars and restaurants have remained open. Sweden has invested heavily in the health system ». As for masks, in Stockholm, the capital, it is very rare to see them wearing. Martina D’Orazio, a graduate in medicine and surgery, specialized in psychiatry, from Rome, has lived and worked in Sweden for 10 years.
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“Sweden has pursued this type of policy from the beginning precisely because it has taken the new coronavirus for what it is – explains the doctor in his countless interventions on social media -. A virus that in 80% of cases is asymptomatic, in 15% gives flu-like symptoms and only in 5% of cases brings to the doctor’s attention “. In short, less panic and more rationality according to D’Orazio. Not only that: Sweden has not stood still. The schools were closed for students over 16, but remained open for the little ones. Gatherings of more than 50 people were prohibited, but bars, restaurants and gyms remained open. And the economy has not suffered the severe blow that many other European countries are experiencing.
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Stockholm
Another important aspect that should not be underestimated is the population density. Sweden is a country that has just over 11 million inhabitants compared to Italy which exceeds 60 million. Furthermore, if we look at the North of Sweden, the population is really thin. But if we look at a city like Stockholm, which has 960,000 inhabitants, more than Turin (it has just over 860,000) and the density of is 5,129 inhabitants per square kilometer, greater than many Italian metropolises, things change. The greatest number of deaths is concentrated in the big cities, Stockholm, but also Malmö and Gothenburg, but the numbers are lower than in cities like Milan or the metropolitan area of Turin. Here it is possible to observe the evolution of the cases of deaths city by city.
