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“We are at the start of something which looks like an epidemic wave”, due to the spread of the Delta variant, a “new enemy because it is much more contagious,” the minister said on Radio J.
“The hospital load for the moment is not increasing, but the same thing will happen as last summer, that is to say that the young people will infect the less young, and, because everyone is not vaccinated, you will have an increase in health pressure, an increase in serious cases and hospitalizations, ”Mr. Véran developed.
According to him, a “small increase” in the activity of SOS doctors, especially in Ile-de-France, is a first sign.
The nearly 4,700 cases recorded on Saturday “could grow to 6,000 in a week, 10,000 in 15 days and rise above 20,000 in early August if we do not act.”
He took the example of Great Britain, with which France has “four weeks of delay”: the country has risen to 30,000 daily cases, and hospital pressure “begins to increase by 30-40% per week, with already hospitals which deprogram care “.
In France, models from the Institut Pasteur “show that even if we managed to reduce the current epidemic dynamic by 15 or 20%, we could postpone a wave of hospitals, reduce it and save many lives,” pleaded the minister. .
“If we didn’t have vaccines, we would face a much bigger wave than the 1st,” in the spring of 2020.
A few hours from a defense council and an intervention by President Macron, compulsory vaccination for caregivers “is a line of thought” to intensify the campaign.
Vaccination is according to him “the major tool against confinement”, even if it is “not favorable” to make it compulsory for all French people over 12 years old, as recommended by the Academy of Medicine .
“We are examining all avenues to avoid whatever happens to have to close the country,” he concluded.
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