What many people fear today is obviously a second wave. Researchers in Flanders have made a worrying projection: if we do not do anything to bend the curves, we will experience a new peak in the epidemic in November. This peak will be larger than what we experienced at the height of the crisis. We must therefore act now. This week will also be decisive.
It’s a statistical model. A perspective produced by two researchers (see image below).
In red our past and our present with the coronavirus. In black the projection for the next few weeks and a crisis that could well be even more severe. Geert Molenberghs, KULeuven biostatistician, comments: “Our current situation is in part comparable to that of March 13. Six weeks later, we were then at the end of April and barely coming off the top of the wave. If we relive the same thing, the peak of summer will still be present in fall. “
According to this curve, we would approach the 10,000 people hospitalized in autumn. That’s almost double the first wave. A dreaded scenario and behind the scenes the authorities have been working on it for several months.
We must complete the current measures
A circular for hospitals dated April already mentioned a plan to deal with a possible second wave.
Philippe Devos, president of ABSyM (the Belgian Association of Medical Syndicates), said at the end of April in this regard: “The government expects something much worse than what we have experienced if people do not follow the hours, days and recommendations made to the letter. If everyone says to themselves, that’s the virus is behind us, I think the second wave will hurt three times as much as the first. ”
So how do you avoid it? Is it possible ? From one virologist to another, the answer varies. The most alarmists speak of a crucial week. It begins today until July 31. Emmanuel André, virologist, informs: “Today, despite the tracing, we are still with that ‘R’ which has been above 1 for some time. This means that if nothing had been done, it will probably be significantly higher. But there is has work to do. We need to complement current measures with other strategies that will make it possible each time to quickly put out the fires before it is too late, before a massive number of people are infected and targeted measures are impossible to control the epidemic “.
Keep this virus in mind. Making an effort, protecting yourself and others is the only thing to do until there is a vaccine.
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