As cases multiply per day, China seems to understand better how the virus that has already left more victims than SARS works. A study published on Tuesday, the “most complete” since the outbreak according to Beijing, offers a detailed analysis of the general trends of the more than 70,000 cases of covid-19.
And among the most striking trends found by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) is that more than 80% of cases have been mild and that sick people and the elderly are the sectors of the population most at risk. But not only them: the investigation also points out the High risk for medical staff.
The findings place the overall mortality rate of the virus at 2.3%, while in Hubei, the most affected province, the mortality rate is 2.9% compared to only 0.4% in the rest of the country. The latest official figures from China published on Tuesday place total deaths in 1,868 and 72,436 infections.
The investigation confirms the high risk for medical personnel.
The authorities reported that there were 98 new deaths and 1,886 new cases on the last day (93 of the deaths and 1,807 of the infections occurred in the epicenter of the outbreak). More than 12,000 people have recovered, according to Chinese authorities.
What else does the study say?
The CCDC investigation analyzed the cases of covid-19 diagnosed in China until February 11, including confirmed, suspected and asymptomatic patients. While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and infection patterns, the study includes a detailed breakdown of confirmed cases throughout China.
Some of the conclusions reached include the following:
- About 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe, and only 4.7% as critical.
- The highest mortality rate is for people 80 years of age or older, with 14.8%.
- For children up to 9 years, there have been no deaths and until the age of 39, the mortality rate remains low, 0.2%.
- For the following age groups, mortality rates increase gradually: for people 40 years of age it is 0.4%; of 50 is 1.3%; 60 is 3.6% and 70 is 8%.
- Regarding the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
By identifying which preexisting diseases put patients at risk, the study found that cardiovascular diseases They are number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.
The document indicates that a total of 3,019 health workers have been infected, 1,716 of which were confirmed cases and five had died before February 11, which was the last day of data included in the investigation.
On February 13, China expanded its definition of how to diagnose people, including “clinically diagnosed cases” that were previously counted separately from “confirmed cases.”
What does it say about the future of the virus?
The document states that “the epidemic curve of symptom onset” peaked around January 23-26 before decreasing until February 11.
No deaths of young children have been reported.
The study suggests that the downward trend in the general curve of the epidemic could mean that the measures taken “are helping to curb the epidemic.” But the authors also warn that with many people returning from a long vacation, the country “needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic.”
In their response to the virus, Chinese authorities quarantined Wuhan, the largest city in Hubei, and the rest of the province, as well as severe travel restrictions on movements throughout the country. (I)
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