According to Erasmus MC virologist Marion Koopmans, you cannot simply compare the situation in Italy and Spain with that in the Netherlands, because all countries and regions are different. She does say about signals from the two southern European countries that a similar trend can be seen here. “It is only a first indication, but you see that the number of people who are admitted per day is decreasing. So it seems that it is starting to level off.”
Koopmans emphasizes that it will take some time before this can be seen in the intensive care departments. “People who are admitted now will be there for a few weeks. So you will be a long time before you see a decrease there.”
Does a lockdown work?
“Everyone wants to hear that the measures taken are working,” says Frits Rosendaal, head of clinical epidemiology at the Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC). “And if the number of infections in Italy does indeed level off, that would also be very nice for the Netherlands. That would mean that social distancing works.”
That makes sense, according to Rosendaal. “If there is less contact between people, the chance of contamination will naturally decrease. Especially if large groups no longer come together.” But that doesn’t mean a lockdown is the best solution.
The World Health Organization calls for testing as much as possible and for the complete isolation of anyone infected. “That would of course be even better,” says Rosendaal, “but the means to test everyone have not yet been available. Therefore, what we do now is a good solution.”
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