Between 9 and 15 October, according to Sciensano’s figures, an average of 7,876 people a day in Belgium became infected with the corona virus. That’s an increase of 79 percent over the previous 7-day period. The average numbers of hospital admissions, now 252, and deaths, 30, are also increasing.
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The classic corona three-stage missile is once again emerging in the statistics: more infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Since the end of September, the contamination figures in our country have risen from one record to another. Yet the situation is different from the spring. We dive into the numbers with you.
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Virus circulating strongly again
We are testing much more than in the spring. The limited testing capacity – in April the number of tests fluctuated between 5,000 and 10,000 per day – was mainly for those who showed clear symptoms. Today we test much more broadly. During the past week, an average of 50,000 tests were administered per day. Nevertheless, the registration of a lot more infections cannot only be traced back to the increased test capacity. The virus also circulates much more strongly than in summer. We can deduce this from the proportion of positive tests, the so-called positivity ratio.
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A high positivity ratio – the World Health Organization (WHO) set a threshold of 5 percent in May – suggests many undiscovered cases and a too rapid spread of the virus. A low ratio indicates sufficient testing and possibly slower spread.
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The percentage of positive tests in Belgium has recently increased rapidly. From 2 percent in early September to an average of 15 percent today. But there are major regional differences. In Liège, more than one in four tests is positive, in Brussels more than one in five. And that while all provinces and the Brussels Region test roughly at a comparable level. By way of comparison: at the end of March, at the peak of the first wave in our country, the ratio was around 30 percent, from May until the summer it remained below 5 percent for Belgium.
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Sciensano uses a flashing light system, whereby the light switches to orange if more than 20 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants have been reported in a municipality in the past seven days. If the number of new infections then increases for seven consecutive days, the light turns red. This is now the case almost everywhere, especially in Brussels and Wallonia:
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The virus has gained a foothold in Belgium, among others by returning skiers. Back then it was mainly 40 and 50 people who tested positive. After that, the coronavirus mainly affected people over 60, who ended up in hospital en masse. From the summer onwards, the virus circulated in people younger than 40, but today the scale is leaning more towards the more vulnerable group of elderly.
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Pressure on care is increasing
More people are being hospitalized again due to Covid-19, the disease caused by the corona virus. 2,485 patients are hospitalized, of whom 412 are being treated in intensive care. That is the highest level since May. Yet here too the situation cannot simply be compared with the first wave. Now hospitals are admitting covid patients much faster than in March and April, when hospital beds filled at a very rapid rate.
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In the more leisurely summer months, a federal spreading plan has been devised to safeguard regular care as much as possible during new corona outbreaks. This means that hospitals keep a certain percentage of their hospital beds and their intensive care places free for covid. In phase 0, this concerns 15 percent of the beds in intensive care units and four times that in the nursing ward. In subsequent phases, each hospital reserves 25 percent (phase 1a), 50 percent (phase 2a) to 60 percent (phase 2b) of the beds in intensive wards.
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10,000 victims
During the past seven days, an average of 30 people died from the disease every day. Overall, we find that Covid-19 is more deadly to old people. More than half of the deceased are over 85s.
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Not all deaths end up in the corona statistics. In order to know the real impact of the deadly coronavirus in Belgium and to be able to compare it with that in other countries, excess mortality is a much more correct indicator. That is the number of extra deaths compared to the average of the previous years.
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During the first week of April, at the height of the first wave, more than twice as many people died than in previous years. Even now it is expected that more people than usual will die. Again: the greatest toll is on the over-85s, the age group of which more people have died than expected since spring. Conversely, in the youngest group up to the age of 24, almost consistently fewer people die than expected this year, partly because there are fewer road accidents.
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