The S&P 500 stock index fell on the US stock market on the 2nd. Even after the announcement of US employment statistics in August, the outlook for future US monetary policy did not change much and the week fell for the third consecutive week.
After the dollar / yen exchange rate hit a high of 140 yen per dollar at one point, the highest since 1998, the rate of increase shrank to stabilize.
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The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 3924.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell $ 337.98, or 1.1%, to close at $ 31,318.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.3% and the heavily tech Nasdaq 100 Index fell 1.4%. Both indices rose in the morning as US employment statistics showed signs of a slight easing in supply and demand for labor, but in the afternoon, sentiment regarding energy supply in Europe worsened and the United States entered a three-day vacation. downward.
S&P 500 species intraday transition (orange line is 1st closing price)
Source: Bloomberg
Risky assets came under downward pressure after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he would continue to raise interest rates and keep them high until inflation stabilizes. The August employment report showed that hourly wage growth has slowed and labor supply and demand in the US may be in balance, but the market is still very likely to raise interest rates by 0. 75 percentage points at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. intertwined.
“A step in the right direction with stable jobs and wage growth,” Matt Perron, research director at Janus Henderson Investors, wrote in a report. “The worst fears that have gripped the stock market in recent days will ease a little, but we’re not out of the woods yet as wage growth remains stubbornly strong and the Fed may continue to hike rates aggressively.” I want to hold on. such vigilance We should continue to invest, but we must be defensive. “
Russian state-owned natural gas company Gazprom said it could not restart a major pipeline that supplies gas to Europe as originally planned.publication. The risk of continued blackouts and a severe recession in Europe is increasing.
The market already fears that the European Central Bank (ECB) may decide to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points next week. CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall said investor concerns are growing due to natural gas supply constraints and growing tensions between the US and China combined. Ahead of the three-day vacation in the US, traders “don’t want to take the risk of the holidays by increasing their long positions,” he said.
Bond prices have risen. Yields on two-year bonds fell below 3.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 3.19% at 4:15 pm New York time. Temporarily decreased by 8 basis points.
As for the expectation that the FOMC will raise interest rates by 0.75 points for the third consecutive time at this month’s meeting, the degree of factoring in the market dropped slightly following the employment report. The level of interest rates that are expected to reach over the next year has also decreased.
In a note, TD Securities’ Priya Misra and Gennady Goldberg recommended extending the bonds to three years as the market rose following the release of the employment report. The terminal rate of 3.9% (the final destination of interest rate hikes) currently priced is “already consistent with the US Fed’s aggressive path” and further hikes are expected to raise expectations for subsequent rate cuts. “This will prevent 3-year bond yields from rising excessively,” she said.
The dollar fell in the foreign exchange market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the movement of the dollar against the top 10 currencies, fell 0.1% due to falling government bond yields. Against the yen, it remained flat at 140.21. At one point, the exchange rate was 140.80 yen, the highest dollar / yen depreciation since 1998. The euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $ 0.9954 per euro.
Shunichi SuzukiThe dollar weakened sharply against the yen after the finance minister said the Japanese government would closely monitor the exchange rate. Finance Minister Suzuki said he dislikes rapid fluctuations in the yen exchange rate, suggesting there may be efforts to influence the market by increasing speculation on official intervention.
“I don’t deny the possibility of intervention at some point, but there seems to be considerable resistance,” said Derek Halpenny, head of European global markets research at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG). If the Japanese government were to make a move, he said, it would be a more dramatic move in which the dollar would quickly surpass the 147.66 yen level of 1998, when the yen weakened and the dollar strengthened.
The New York crude oil futures market rebounded slightly. A spokeswoman for the US State Department said Iran’s response to negotiations to re-establish the Iran nuclear deal “was not constructive”.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for October delivery rose 26 cents (0.3%) to close at $ 86.87 a barrel. It fell 6.7% on a weekly basis as fears of a slowdown in global growth weighed on the outlook for demand. November delivery of London ICE North Sea Brent increased 66 cents to $ 93.02.
Seven major countries (G7) plan to introduce a maximum price when the world buys Russian oilpublicationHowever, it was largely ignored by the market. “Russian exports hit a record high in August despite sanctions, showing that existing G7 sanctions can be circumvented,” analysts from fuel wholesaler TAC Energy said in a note to customers. He said the price cap plan was largely a symbolic move.
The New York gold futures market has rebounded. After the release of US employment data, the increase was broadened. The improvement in the labor force participation rate was seen as a positive sign for the Federal Reserve, which sought to contain inflation. New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) gold futures for December closed at $ 1,722.60 an ounce, up 0.8% from the previous day.
Edward Gardner, a commodities economist at Capital Economics, commented on the modest rise in gold after the release of the employment report: it reduced the risk of such rate hikes. “
news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Original title:
Stocks suffer their third weekly loss due to rate hike problems – markets wrap(extract)
Treasuries finished higher led by Short End after mixed jobs report （抜 粋）
Yen Plunge stops as Head of Finance Eyes Foreign-Exchange Markets(extract)
Oil records a weekly loss as the outlook for global energy demand dims(extract)
Gold is gaining after US job numbers eased the pressure on the Fed(extract)
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