Beaches like this one here in Port Douglas, Australia, could soon fall victim to climate change.
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Why the world’s sandy beaches could soon disappear
White sandy beaches could become a rare sight in the future, because climate change threatens them. This is the conclusion of a new study. She draws two possible scenarios – one worse than the other.
Beaches have always been places that yearn for people. Especially for people from landlocked countries like Switzerland. Accordingly, they are also a huge sales argument from many tourist destinations and are elementary for the economy of the beach states. Think, for example, of the Caribbean or the Maldives.
In addition to economic added value, beaches also offer other advantages that cannot be monetized directly. For example, they serve as the first protective wall against marine storms and floods. But the sandy all-rounders are in danger. By the end of this century, 50 percent of all sandy beaches could have fallen victim to climate change.
Sea eats beach
This is what researchers report in the specialist magazine «Nature Climate Change». In a study, a team led by scientist Michalis Vousdoukas examined satellite data that show global changes in the coastlines between 1984 and 2015. They took this as the basis for making predictions for the future.
Natural processes such as wave erosion and the geology underlying the respective beaches were also taken into account. Human factors, such as the development of the coast, were also taken into account.
Unsurprisingly, the researchers found the main culprits to be climate change and the associated rise in sea levels. However, the extent of the results was very surprising.
The most affected would be Australia, which could lose up to 14,800 kilometers of beach. That would be 50 percent of the entire beach area of Australia. This would be a disaster for a country whose population lives almost exclusively near the coast.
picture: nature climate change
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Australia, Canada, Chile and the USA are just behind Australia, which could also lose thousands of kilometers of beach. Island states like those in the Caribbean or in the South Pacific see themselves completely threatened by the existence of the sea level rise.
Bad and worse
The researchers assumed two scenarios for their future forecasts. In the “worst case” scenario, the CO2 emissions of the global community remained at a constant level (RCP8.5). In the second example, the researchers assumed that global warming was limited to plus three degrees (RCP4.5).
The RCP scenarios Incidentally, they do not come from the researchers themselves, but are official future forecasts of the IPCC.
If the worst-case scenario occurs, 49.5 percent of the world’s sandy beaches would have disappeared by 2100. That corresponds to almost 132,000 kilometers of coastline. As early as 2050, the loss would be 40,000 kilometers.
In the 3-degree scenario, the damage would still be devastating: 95,000 kilometers of lost beaches by 2100, a large part in the next 30 years. The “Guardian»Visualized this using the example of Greece:
It should also be mentioned that the RCP models assume a sea level rise of 84 or 50 centimeters. However, many climate scientists consider these estimates to be too conservative and assume that the increase will be twice as strong.
Climate protection and coastal planning
However, not everything is lost. We still have some leeway to save the world’s beaches.
A first step would be wise coastal planning. The researchers cite the Netherlands as a positive example of how beach erosion can be counteracted if man-made erosion processes are stopped.
The only really effective measure would be the reduction of greenhouse gases. As the researchers reported in the study, compliance with the Paris climate agreement would have a major impact on beach retreat.
This could be reduced by 17 percent by 2050, and by 40 percent by 2100.
