by Rita Fatiguso
Global production lines are increasingly divided and Beijing needs supplies. We are only at the beginning, for the red metal the forecast by 2027 is another 47 percent.
2′ reading
Who does it himself, with what follows. There China has moved on the side of autarky for some time, also to prevent shocks linked to conflicts and frictions with Western countries. We need to guarantee the global energy transition and stop foreign competition also in the development of new technologies. For this reason Beijing begins to stock up on copper, they will follow the lithium, cobalt and nickel, used in electric vehicle batteries. The construction of new smelters will serve to produce the necessary red metal.
Home production
Autarky is fine, but let’s also remember what Kai-fu Lee, the inventor of 01.AI, the unicorn start-up of Chinese artificial intelligence, an open resource for the whole world, declared a few days ago: to start (and continue) we have stocked up on semiconductors. In other words, home production today cannot meet the needs of the future. But you can start by stocking up.
For copper, capacity is rapidly increasing, introducing a new dynamic to a market that for 20 years has been driven largely by how much Chinese buyers are willing to pay. The country will still import increasing quantities of copper, but more as an ore, a raw material, rather than as a refined metal.
«Like all countries, China has a strategic need for copper, particularly with the growth of green energy applications, and China – says Craig Lang, analyst at CRU Group. – like everyone else, he wants to guarantee self-sufficiency.”
A push for mergers
Copper will be the pioneering product of this new trend. According to Carlos Risopatron, economic director of the International Copper Study Group, China’s copper smelting capacity will increase another 45% by 2027, accounting for 61% of new plants expected worldwide in that period.
According to CRU Group, however, China will represent approximately 45% of global refined copper production. Copper demand in China is expected to grow by 5% this year, while Goldman Sachs, for its part, has highlighted copper as a major commodity of choice for next year in a “robust green demand environment”. .
Beijing has extended its range of action to half the world, primarily the copper mines of Latin American countries over which it has great influence. There is no denying that Operation Copper was not adequately prepared.
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2023-11-13 11:17:55
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