The new coronavirus could kill 36,000 people a day during the Lunar New Year holiday that begins this weekend in China.analysis resultswas announced by the British research firm Airfinity on the 17th.
The company raised its estimate of deaths over the Lunar New Year holidays by 11,000 per day from December 29 last year.
Estimates of China’s coronavirus death toll hit up to 25,000 a day next month
Body bags at the back of a funeral parlor in Shanghai, December 31, 2022.
Photographer Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
Airfinity combined data from local governments with mortality rates after other countries that had strict COVID-19 restrictions lifted those restrictions for the first time.
Instead of repeated peaks and troughs, China is likely to experience a “longer and more severe wave of the coronavirus,” according to the company. The mass migration of people returning to their hometowns to reunite with their families is said to spread the coronavirus infection.
“Hospital overcrowding and the overwhelmed medical system threaten to kill many treatable patients,” said Matt Linley, the company’s director of analytics.
Outbreak Peaks
China to see 36,000 daily Covid deaths over Lunar New Year, analysts say
Source: Airfinity Ltd.
Airfinity said the revised outlook takes into account reports suggesting infections have already peaked in some provinces, including Henan, Gansu, Qinghai and Yunnan. Analytical indicators suggest that COVID-19 spread to rural areas earlier than expected, such as during Lunar New Year trips.
The company estimates that the total number of coronavirus deaths in China since December last year has reached 608,000. China has officially announced that nearly 60,000 people have died in medical institutions due to the coronavirus in the five weeks since the start of the current epidemic.
Nearly 60,000 coronavirus-related deaths in China in a month – price for sudden turnaround
Travel in China Recovering
But Lunar New Year travel not back to pre-pandemic levels
Source: China’s Ministry of Transport, Bloomberg
Original title:China’s Covid Deaths Expected to Hit 36,000 a Day During Holiday(excerpt)
