Traditionally, foreign policy has not been a defining area in a federal election. This is partly because foreign policy is not one of the main priorities Canadians in an election.
However, this does not mean that Canadians are losing interest in foreign policy – quite the contrary. a survey shows, in particular, that Canadians have an international vision for their country and are broadly in favor of a global commitment by Canada to pursue its objectives.
PhD student at the Department of Political Science at UQAM and researcher at the Strategic Analysis Network, I specialize in intelligence studies, defense and national security policy in Western countries as well as international security. I propose here to identify the major defense and national security issues which await the next federal government and which are often little dealt with, whatever the outcome of the election.
The modernization of NORAD and the issue of the anti-missile shield
On August 14, Canada and the United States released a joint statement on the modernization of NORAD (the North American Aerospace Defense Command). The two countries say they are cooperating to improve its capacity in the face of new threats. These mainly come from China and Russia in the context of the re-emergence of rivalries between the great powers. They are the result of technological advances, particularly in terms of missiles hypersoniques, intended to delay detection and thus bypass missile defenses.
However, NORAD’s current infrastructure is not sufficiently up to date to provide adequate defense against these threats. Several are therefore of the opinion that a modernization of NORAD is to be expected in the short term. However, it is not known what will be the extent and nature of Canada’s contribution to its modernization.
The functions of NORAD can be simplified into two main areas. The first, offensive and often equated with the anti-missile shield, allows the interception of missiles heading towards North American territory. With the modernization of NORAD and technological advances, the component offensive of the organization will expand, in particular to destroy missile launchers on their own territory before launching missiles.
The second component of NORAD, by nature defensive, consists mainly of the ability to detect threats and monitor North American territory. Traditionally, Canada supports more the defensive side of NORAD and is more reluctant to participate in the interception of missiles. The electoral platforms of the main parties, notably the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party and the NDP are relatively silent on the extent and nature of a contribution to the modernization of NORAD.
the Liberal Party and the Conservative party mention, however, the upgrade of the North Warning System, part of the defensive component of NORAD, suggesting that a consensus among the two main parties exists, favoring a defensive contribution to its modernization.
The Indo-Pacific region
With the increase in rivalries between the great powers, especially between the United States and China, all eyes are on the Indo-Pacific, also called Indo-Pacific, and which includes, among others, China, Japan, India, Australia and New Zealand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Pakistan.
The focus on this region is, according to the US President Joe Biden, one of the factors explaining the desire for the rapid withdrawal of the armed forces in Afghanistan.
It is no surprise, moreover, that our main allies, the United States, now wish to focus on “Chinese threat” and a future confrontation between the great powers. Indeed, the United States is considering a new strategic planning and a possible clash with China. As an ally of the United States, one should surely expect that the latter will ask Canada to contribute, in one way or another, to their efforts to counter the growing Chinese influence in the region. .
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), alliance important for Canada, there is also the question of an Asian hub of its missions, more traditionally oriented towards Eastern Europe. Indeed, in the face of the threat posed by China, a Expert Group NATO recommend that the latter do more to counter China’s regional and international influence. But there would be no consensus among member countries as to NATO’s role in the Indo-Pacific.
Two different approaches to China
The Chinese question in foreign policy is of obvious national interest to Canada, given the dire situation of theimprisonment by Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig. Moreover, the legal saga involving Huawei’s financial director, Meng Wanzhou, which led to the arrest of the two Canadians according to Ottawa, is far from over.
The current Liberal government has been relatively timid during its tenure, and its campaign platform does not seem to want to change that much.
(AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Among the two main parties, only the Conservative Party seems to favor a hard line towards China, by proposing to withdraw Canada from the Asian Investment Bank, to impose sanctions on those who violate human rights in China or to approach the Quad, a regional partnership on security bringing together the United States , Japan, Australia and India.
While Canada has traditionally not had a strong strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific, the Conservative Party appears to want to remedy the situation to protect the region’s economic and national security from Chinese military expansionism. However, adopting such a position in the Indo-Pacific and towards China risks increasing tensions between the two countries.
However, the risk of sanctions from China generally hits middle powers like Canada the hardest. For example, China’s ban on importing Canadian canola would be a retaliatory measure against Canada, just like the hefty fines received a few days ago by Canadian manufacturer Canada Goose in China.
Read more: Canadian meat banned in China: very bad news for the agri-food sector
One of Canada’s allies, New Zealand, has moreover selected a more nuanced stance towards China, fearing retaliation affecting the country.
Espionage, foreign interference and disinformation
Finally, the last security issue that I wish to address in this text is national security, shaken by the growth of espionage, foreign interference and disinformation.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) considered now espionage and foreign interference as the most significant threats to Canada’s national security. It is also China and Russia that are virulently targeting Canada, in particular to secretly gather political, economic, scientific and military information on Canada. In the heart of the pandemic, the dismissal Chinese scientists at a high-security laboratory in Winnipeg could be linked, some say, to a spy case.
The Canadian Press / John Woods
Disinformation, on the other hand, seeks in particular to destabilize Canada’s democratic processes and Canadian values, to manipulate the public and to discredit democratic regimes.
In particular, the Liberal Party is committed to continuing the fight against foreign interference, while increasing the resources of national security and intelligence agencies and working with G7 and NATO countries. The Conservative Party, meanwhile, appears to be focused on combating China’s influence operations in Canada.
While federal elections often give rise to heated debates between the main political parties, issues of foreign policy and national security are generally little or not addressed. However, the three raised in this text are at the heart of Canada’s security and strategic developments. Whatever the outcome of the federal election, the next government will have to address these issues.
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