Calm Economic Agenda: Bank of England’s Huw Pill Appearance, Update on New Chinese Lending, and US Government Debt Auction in Focus

Monday, September 11

– Appearance of Pill, member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England

– China – New loans

– United States – 3-year public debt auction (T-Note)

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Calm economic agenda: Bank of England’s Huw Pill appearance, update on new Chinese lending and US government debt auction in focus

Today we have a pretty quiet day on the agenda. Huw Pill, Chief Economist and Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Research, will appear in his capacity as a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). An update on new loans in China is expected, with a forecast of 1,150 billion, a figure that would contrast sharply with the current level of 345.9 billion. The United States will hold a public debt auction on 3-year bonds, with market participants closely watching whether the yield will deviate from the current 4.398%, especially in light of the previous yield of 4.534%.

Over the weekend, it was announced that consumer inflation in China registered little variation in the month of August. It registered a slight increase of 0.3% compared to July and an increase of 0.1% compared to the same month of the previous year. Global demand remains weak.

China Aug inflation as expected
CPI +0.1%yoy (exp +0.1%), up from -0.3%yoy, with rising energy prices
Core (ex food & energy) infl unchanged at +0.8%yoy

PPI -3%yoy (exp -2.9%), up from -4.4%yoy
Continuing low infl leaves plenty of room for policy stimulus
(Goldman Sachs chart) pic.twitter.com/vM2eOyWwjB

— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) September 9, 2023

On the other hand, producer prices in China fell again, although the decline in August was the smallest recorded since March in an annual comparison. In monthly terms, prices remained practically stable, marking the best figure since October of last year.

Economic forecasts: slight rise in UK unemployment rate and focus on wages

Tomorrow, a slight increase in the UK unemployment rate is anticipated, rising from the previous 4.2% to 4.3%. However, market attention will likely shift to salary figures. Average Income, excluding bonuses, is expected to remain at 7.8%, and Average Income including bonuses is expected to be 8.2%. With a September interest rate hike already considered virtually assured, this report could have a significant impact on market valuation beyond September.

Picture of Depositphotos