In May 2022, the price growth trend slowed down, but the average time period from the appearance of the offer to the finalization of the sale began to lengthen. Is this a signal that high interest rates, a drop in real incomes, formal barriers to crediting and other unfavorable circumstances have brought the beginnings of the crisis to the housing market? Will the KNF soften its recommendation on mortgage loans to stop the recession?
This year will be one of the most difficult on the real estate market in Poland. According to SonarHome data, from the beginning of the year, the prices of flats in the largest Polish cities have already increased by 5%, and the time of their sale – extended to even 90 days.
The series of the fastest interest rate hikes in history is underway, and the first cuts will be expected in Q4 2023 or even in early 2024, which signals that credit demand will continue to decline. The only thing that can improve the situation is by easing the recommendation of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, requested by the Polish Association of Developers. Is the previous cycle on the real estate market almost ending?
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With subsequent increases in interest rates, the number of people who will be able to afford a loan will systematically decrease. The reason is not only high installments, but also the lack of creditworthiness calculated each time before the bank grants a loan.
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