The experts agree that spring will help us against corona. Jaap van Dissel of the RIVM estimated the seasonal effect at 15 percent today, but he immediately said that it was an estimate. And they can also turn out less favorable.
Hay fever can help
There are those who most likely benefit a lot more from the start of spring than others. Because if you suffer from hay fever, it could be that that protects you against a corona infection with serious consequences.
This is how it might work: the pollen in the air activates the immune system. The same immune system is not only active against the pollen, but according to various medical studies also works against the possibly invading virus, says data scientist and former professor Martijn Hoogeveen of the Open University in Heerlen.
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Hoogeveen did research into the seasonal effects of corona and illnesses like the flu, and concluded that they behave much the same. It turns out: both diseases have a dip in the infections when the hay fever season starts and there is more UV light.
Spring is late
A month ago, Hoogeveen expected that we should be in a better position now. “By mid-April at the latest, I expect that the bump that we are now seeing will melt away,” he said in de Volkskrant. But where spring was early last year, we are now experiencing one of the coldest April months ever.
“You see various biologists describe that nature is delayed for several weeks,” says the researcher. “We are already seeing spring effects, but not as strong as usual. When spring gets underway, we still expect an extra push downwards.”
You can see that spring is indeed late in the video below:
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So hay fever is one of the potentially positive spring effects for the recurrence of the virus, but UV light from the sun, which breaks down the virus particles, is also going to help us. Virologist Ab Osterhaus said this earlier: “There are some general laws for viruses. Ventilation, the wind outside and humidity play a role. UV light destroys the RNA of a virus.”
Going outside has a positive effect
The air outside can also help us a bit in the right direction: a third spring effect. Because while we were all in poorly ventilated living rooms in the winter, we go out more in the spring (when the weather is good). “Going outside has a positive effect in general,” says Peter Lescuere professor of Building Services at TU Delft.
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Lescuere knows a lot about aerosols, the tiny droplets that can cause contamination. These aerosols are diluted if there is good ventilation in a place, and that is of course the case outside. But he also warns, because in order to really take advantage of that advantage, we must continue to adhere to the measures, and that is a little less obvious outside than inside. “That can have really negative consequences.”
Outside, the virus dissipates, but you have to
The latter endorses RIVM boss Jaap van Dissel. “Outside there is more chance of the virus evaporating. We do not know exactly how big that chance is. But there is also more chance of additional infections”, says Van Dissel, for example when we go back to the catering industry. “You have to go there, you use the toilet.” And all of that can lead to infections.
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Time for spring to break through in full. But when is that the case? “It seems to remain fairly cold, so that is not very positive”, says meteorologist Marc de Jong of Buienradar. “But there is quite a bit of sun up to and including King’s Day, so that UV light will be fine.”
Most people allergic to grasses
The hay fever season is also on the rise, as you can see in the Buienradar map below, but the most severe weeks are still to come. De Jong: “Now the pollen comes from the birch trees, but most people are allergic to grasses, that will probably come sometime in May.”
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The conclusion is clear: Spring is going to help us, whether it is because the hay fever season starts or because the virus is damaged by UV light, left or right the infections will be reduced somewhat by the changing weather.
But it will not be the final blow, it will really have to come from the vaccinations, says Hoogeveen: “Spring effects are temporary, vaccination is ultimately the only way to get rid of the virus.”
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