RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) – Brazil currently accounts for a quarter of COVID-19 deaths worldwide, far more than any other country, and health experts warn that the country is on the brink of even greater calamity. .
The seven-day average is 2,400 deaths a day and will reach 3,000 in the coming weeks, said six experts consulted by the Associated Press. It is almost the highest level recorded in the United States, although Brazil has two-thirds of the population of the North American country. On Friday 3,650 deaths were registered and the figure could soon reach 4,000.
At the edge of the abyss, not only experts but many mayors and governors recognize that quarantines are no longer avoidable. Restrictions on activity last year were reluctant, and President Jair Bolsonaro constantly sabotaged them to avoid economic collapse. To this day, he is not convinced of the need for a general quarantine, forcing local governments to apply a hodgepodge of measures to prevent the mortality from continuing to rise.
It could be too late, since a more contagious variant sweeps Brazil. On March 25, the daily number of new cases surpassed 100,000 for the first time, and many more were not counted. Miguel Nicolelis, a professor of neurobiology at Duke University in North Carolina who advised several Brazilian governors and mayors on controlling the pandemic, estimates that the death toll will reach half a million in July and will exceed that of the United States by the end of anus.
“We have exceeded levels never imagined for a country with a public health system, a history of efficient immunization campaigns and health workers who have nothing to envy the best in the world,” said Nicolelis. “The next stage is the collapse of the health system.”
The system is already about to collapse: intensive care units in almost every state are near or at the limit of their capacity. Dr. José Antônio Curiati, a supervisor at the Hospital das Clinicas de Sao Paulo, the largest hospital complex in Latin America, said that the beds are all occupied and the sick continue to arrive. The supply of oxygen is not guaranteed and the sedatives used for intubation in ICUs will soon be exhausted.
“The 4,000 daily deaths seem to be just around the corner,” said Curiati,
On March 17, in the northeastern state of Piaui, nurse Polyena Silveira was crying with a patient who died of COVID-19 on the floor due to lack of beds. A photo of the scene went viral and served as a wake-up call to the entire country.
“When he died, I had two minutes to regret it before moving on to the next patient,” Silveira, 33, told the AP. “In my eight years as a nurse, I have never felt as much pain as that night. I am close to my limit, physically and mentally.
The state institute of science and technology Fiocruz demanded a 14-day quarantine on Tuesday to reduce the contagion by 40%. Natalia Pasternak, a microbiologist who chairs the Cuestion de Ciencia Institute, highlighted a local example: the city of Araraquara in Sao Paulo where contagion and mortality have decreased since she applied a quarantine last month.
Pasternak declined to calculate the daily death toll in the country, but said it will continue to rise if no action is taken.
“We need coordinated measures, but there probably won’t be because the federal government has no real interest in taking preventive measures,” Pasternak said. “(The mayors and governors) try to take preventive measures, but separately and each in their own way. This is not the best approach, but it is better than nothing. “
Minas Gerais, the second most populous state in Brazil, has closed non-essential businesses. Espirito Santo will go into quarantine on Sunday. The two largest cities, Rio and Sao Paulo, have strictly restricted non-essential activities. State authorities pushed holidays forward to create a 10-day rest period that began on Friday.
But the effectiveness of the restrictions depends on their compliance by citizens. And Bolsonaro continues to undermine it by pointing out that a quarantine, even a partial one, violates the individual’s right to earn their wages. He violently attacks local leaders, particularly governors, who dare to challenge him.
“We must open our eyes and understand that this is not a joke,” Rio Mayor Eduardo Paes said in a message recorded on the eve of the 10-day quarantine in which he stressed that no mayor wants to cause unemployment. “There are people who die, and if everything continues as it is, only God knows what could happen. Nobody knows the limit of this disease. Nobody knows how many variants could emerge ”.
The next day, hundreds of protesters marched on Rio’s Copacabana beach. Most wore the green and yellow T-shirt typical of the Bolsonaro rallies and many refused to put on the mask. They chanted the slogan “We want to work” and insults Paes.
