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Thanks to packages generated by e-commerce, bpost largely beat analyst consensus in the second quarter. The title soared 20.54%.
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The main question that one could ask oneself after reading the results largely superior to the expectations garnered by post
in the 2nd quarter was how the market would react this morning to the announcement of the elimination of the dividend. A decision which, as noted Thomas Roofer and Ruben Devos of KBC Securities, spoil the party a bit.
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But, in the end, not that much, it seems. Investors ignored the coupon and preferred salute operational performance carried out by the postal group. After having already climbed 8% Tuesday in the wake of the results of its competitor PostNL
, the action soared 20.54% to 7.37 euros at closing.
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Three factors
Some figures to justify this fireworks display. Income in the quarter climbed 12.5% to 1.05 billion euros, analysts expecting 910 million. As for l’Ebit, the latter were aiming for a figure of 37.5 million euros, and it finally reached double to 75 million euros. Let’s keep our feet on the ground, however. Apart from turnover, all other key indicators (EBITDA, EBIT and income) are down from one year to the next.
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But at least three factors justify this relief rally in stock exchange. Like PostNL, bpost has benefited from the explosion in packages following confinement, the American subsidiary Radial achieved, for the first time, a positive EBIT and, finally, the group resumed its previous forecasts for 2020 of an EBIT of between 240 and 270 million euros.
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Buying brokers
The packets posted an excellent performance in Eurasia and North America, note KBC analysts. “While the peak may be behind us, we see bpost still benefiting from the growth in online sales.”
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“While the peak may be behind us, we see bpost still benefiting from the growth in online sales.”
Thomas Couvreur and Ruben Devos
Analysts at KBC Securities
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About the classic mail, they find that the underperformance in April and May was offset by a strong recovery in June. Faced with this “very solid quarter”, they took up their advice to “buy” against “keep” before. The price target is however cut by one euro to 8.5 euros.
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Same decision at Degroof Petercam which passes to the purchase with a target increased from 2 euros to 9 euros. Frank Claassen believes that resuming forecasts that had been canceled is a sign of strength.
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For his part, Marc Zwartsenburg d’ING (“keep”; 8.25 euros) underlines that the performance of the 2e quarter is driven by all of the group’s divisions, with parcels standing out with a volume jump of 78% in the Benelux.
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