The project will be a bonus for Rumen Radev, but a blow to the political forces that support it, the sociologist believes
Among the president are the probable think tank behind a possible new party around the ministers Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev – the party and Rumen Radev are mutually necessary, commented in an interview Dir.bg the sociologist and analyst of the political processes in our country Boryana Dimitrova. According to her, the two will not be members of the next cabinet. Dimitrova also believes that the new formation will be situated rather in the center and will not be ideologically charged. According to her, however, the persons of such a future formation should clarify their relations with “Democratic Bulgaria”, which will be the most damaged by their project. Such a party project will be a bonus for Rumen Radev, but a blow against the parties that support him, Boryana Dimitrova is categorical.
– There was a lot of talk about a hypothetical party of Kiril Petkov. Cabinet members, including the prime minister, have expressed readiness to join. Is there bread in such a party?
– Let’s say – there are prerequisites in two directions. The first direction is the twofold failure of the protest parties to form a government and the catastrophically developing relations between them. With this tension that exists, it is normal for people to look for a new subject. And he will have more resources, more ability, more dialogue, so that he can form a government. Because for the second time Bulgaria is in a stalemate and the parties that were expected to be able to form a government to the greatest extent fail for the second time. Therefore, people are looking for a possible new entity that could nominate a government. This is one prerequisite I see.
The second – these are undoubtedly the concerns that the tension between these three parties ITN, BSP and IBGNI, these are parties that have undoubtedly stated their support for President Radev in a presidential campaign. This over-tension, which we see literally until the last days, including the return of the mandate, can have a serious negative impact on Radev’s own campaign. So, on the one hand, preconditions, expectations for the emergence of a new entity that will be more able to make a government, and on the other hand, concerns that these parties will not be enough to support the presidential campaign, apparently, as whether it pushes and raises the level of expectations for the emergence of a new entity to play a more consolidating role in this campaign.
– What is the think tank, in your opinion? Is this an “official” party, given that the idea revolves around caretaker ministers? Is the president behind this, or is it another think tank?
– We can only assume, so far it is only speculation. In any case, it seems to me that if this idea develops, it is a think tank around circles close to the president. By no means do I want to convey that I recommend for the mother to be inactive. If this party is just another new entity on the right or left, it would have a rather quick and inglorious end, enough new projects have emerged in recent years, which either quickly or even faster took the road to sunset.
And we see, including the one that is rapidly flourishing of Slavi Trifonov, that it is being shaken electorally. Therefore, what seems realistic to me as a way of thinking is to look for a gap in the president’s rating to give an incentive, to give impetus to the formation of a party with which to partner with each other.
“To serve as a launch vehicle?”
– Exactly, as a launch vehicle, but on both sides – Radev to give an incentive for the establishment of this party, for which there are signals – at the moment we can only count signals. The caretaker prime minister himself, who is constitutionally depoliticized, has unequivocally said he would support such a party. So, on the one hand, Radev needs in a situation of very strained relations between the parties that support him, a party that sits tightly behind him.
Kiril Petkov, for his part, said that he wholeheartedly supported President Radev and would not play for president. President Radev needs the party, but the party also needs him.
They are mutually necessary, especially in a situation where, in any case, the presidential and parliamentary campaigns will run in parallel. Whether they will be on the same day, whether they will be a week away, does not matter. The two campaigns will run in parallel and they will overflow with energy.
So, it seems to me that if there is such a brain center, it is in any case around the president, because this construct can only develop through this interaction. If there was just another new party that appeared without a connection to the figure of the president, such a project would have a much more limited and much more fleeting impact.
– If this brain center is really around him, does it mean that he is finally disappointed with the protest parties – ITN, DB and Maya Manolova’s formation?
– He unlocked the energy of the protest, I would say. He seems too likely to be disappointed. It is no coincidence that I said that the failure to elect a government obviously has an impact on both the mood of the electorate and the political actors, including the president. How do you imagine two parties that do not want to meet to talk, that demonstrate to the last hostility to each other, will persuade their voters to vote for the same person?
It would be in the interest of Radev or someone else in his place for the parties that support him to achieve some form of synchronicity or consolidation with each other. It is obvious that there is such a disappointment and because of this the feeling is that this project is being launched as a matter of urgency. The way it came into circulation in the media so quickly. All analysts and you, the journalists, expect, as it were, the creation of a snowball, an avalanche of comments, which is typical for the construction of projects on the example of business models – public expectation starts, response starts, a certain amount of uncertainty starts, all this creates a first phase of the project, which is the phase of anticipation, the awakening of interest.
And from now on we must move on to the second phase, in which the awakened expectations will be crowned with a vote. Let me say, however, that one thing is this first phase, which is characterized by novelty, with interest, with the charm of the voters, but still the transition to the second phase, purely party, is much more difficult.
– Then will there be time for this to happen for these parliamentary elections?
– I can not say. Purely technologically, this can be done through the registration of another party, it can be done through some platform. These are technological details.
– Yes, but these are caretaker ministers, should they leave their posts and the president should lose them in the next caretaker government, if they are going to form a party?
– That’s right, you are absolutely right, but look, Bulgaria is entering a more difficult economic period, with rising prices, with a growing COVID-wave, with difficulties in the health system and in any case, even in terms of their personal daily In turn, these ministers would be in a better position if they were not members of the caretaker government.
Radev’s second caretaker government will face greater difficulties than the first caretaker government. In this sense, some darker colors on the image of these people are certainly undesirable. Yes, if they start this project, they will leave the cabinet. My personal expectation, regardless of whether they will run in this election with their own project or leave it for the next ones, is that they will not be part of Radev’s second government.
– Where do you see this party of Kiril Petkov situated, with what profile – left, right, center?
– From the way Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev, who see themselves as the main figures, speak, it seems to me that they will look for this formula, which was imposed in recent years – a centrist, neither left nor right party, to put at the center are economic problems, the fight against corruption, increasing incomes, updating the budget, things that are liked in a very wide electoral spectrum.
– Should we imagine something like a new NMSS around the Tsar?
– Something like a new NMSS, we could call it that, which is not strongly ideologically focused, because we see that ideological debates divide. Problems that are strongly ideologically focused are not so easy to solve. And it seems to me that from everything they say, they are very careful not to focus on topics that are divisive for voters, but on topics that everyone recognizes as important and essential. So quite cleverly, I would say, these ministers or the creators of the project have touched this public string around which this party would be built.
– Who is afraid of the party of Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev?
– It will certainly try to attract a wide range of voters. The parties to which these two ministers are closest should feel most threatened. This is “Democratic Bulgaria”. Hristo Ivanov called them “our supporters”. Kiril Petkov is part of the founders, so they would draw votes from this formation in the first place. I guess the DB has realized very clearly that it is one thing to have just like-minded people when they are members of the caretaker government, and another thing to have political competition. Because when they are on the political field, no matter how much they have common ground, they already become political competitors. But this formation has the ambition and the opportunity to take votes from the ITN, from the formation of Maya Manolova – it should feel particularly threatened because it is very close to the threshold for entering parliament and may remain outside the next. The BSP can also be worried – we already know about the BSP that they asked a rather sharp question to the president whether he is behind this party, which unequivocally expresses these concerns. The main challenge for this possible future party is what would happen if it ran in this election – whether it would increase the overall potential of the protest parties, or simply redistribute it, take a little from this one, from the other, but it would be a game with zero result. Even if I get votes from different parties, the sum of the protest parties should be the same. This is one thing – will it increase the current potential of 112 deputies, will it get a higher percentage so that a government can be formed, or will there be an internal redistribution, a little of one party, a little of the other, a little of the third , but again the total result should not exceed, should not make a large majority. This seems to me to be the first key thing in view of the forthcoming elections. Not so much the emergence of the party itself, but whether it will increase electoral support, not just redistribute it.
And the second thing that is important to say is that if such a project starts now, there will be a feeling of quite serious resentment, a soft word I use, a feeling of unfair play, as in the case of “Democratic Bulgaria”, which was very active in the support of these ministers, as well as with regard to the parties that support the president.
If such a project appeared, it would in any case derive the main bonuses from Radev’s candidacy. It turns out that what is a bonus, plus for Radev, will be a blow to the parties that first supported him. It is difficult to read at the moment how people will appreciate this moral side. Are we talking about people who were like-minded – the parties around Radev and the ministers around DB, and in the end it turns out to be a dishonest game against “Democratic Bulgaria”. Will this not redistribute public attitudes? There is a rather unclear relationship between such a potential project and the parties with which its individuals have so far partnered and supported them.
It is possible, of course, that this project will start after the current parliamentary elections. There is no such stable parliament. It is possible that they will participate in another parliament. Then the situation would probably be clearer, because there would be no suspicion that the project was created as a matter of urgency so that the president could help him and they could help the president.
Let’s keep a strong skepticism – yes, a new project. Yes, with celebrities. But when he enters the field of politics and when he becomes one of all parties, and does not enjoy the privilege of supra-party, because the official cabinet is supra-party and people generally like supra-party faces, when you enter the field of party battles, things become more different.
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