Bolton’s book and the future of Trump

President Trump’s chances of winning the next election depend on a combination of factors. Among these determinants are the ability of his Democratic rival, John Biden, to win and the American political climate.

There is also the ability of the Trump administration to achieve qualitative feats in the short time available to it, especially economically and in fighting the ravages of the coronavirus epidemic.

There is also relief from the fears of a large segment of the American people about the specter of racial division following the recent racial protests sparked by the recent murder of George Floyd by an American police officer.

The content of books related to President Trump’s policies are surely part of the tools for shaping American public opinion for the coming period. Their content should be used in media and political attacks to show President Trump’s ineligibility for a second term.

The seriousness of Bolton’s book does not, in my opinion, lie in the facts and statements he made about President Trump’s ignorance of geography and military information, even though he did not know that Britain was a nuclear power. Such things do not get the full attention of the American public.

The most serious point of this book is that it seeks to establish that Trump put his own interest in a second term before the national interests of the United States. Bolton made reference to the president who asked his Chinese counterpart to help him run for a second term, noting the weight of farmers and the increased purchases of soybeans and wheat by the Chinese in the election results. He also said he was looking to withhold military aid from Ukraine to push it to harm its Democratic rival, John Biden. This is the same charge that the Democrats have already made against President Trump and tried to use it as a charge of treason in order to remove him from office.

Obviously, it is difficult to underestimate the consequence of the words of Bolton and others who feed critics and opponents of President Trump with material to offend him. This situation places his campaign in constant defense until the November election.

The weight of Bolton’s book does not lie only in the facts it contains. It also stems from the fact that the controversy over it has coincided with the publication of other books. One of them is a book by Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State under George W. Bush Jr. Another book, authored by Trump’s niece, deals with family scandals involving the President.

By observing the American political scene in recent months, we realize that President Trump has moved from the box of absolute confidence in victory in the next election to the box of mistrust.

He recently raised the prospect of losing this election, citing several reasons, including the postal vote supported by his Democratic opponents. “Voting by mail is the only way for me to lose,” Trump said in an interview with The Washington Times. “Because democrats cheat, loot and steal. They do not send to certain regions, especially to republican regions. “

Former US vice president Joe Biden, who has received enough delegate support for the next Democratic convention to run for president in November, looks weaker than former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who presented to the presidency in 2016, Trump believes. But he recognizes that “the machine is stronger because they are desperate. “

Trump’s words about “manipulating” the election results are part of his electoral tactics. But it also hides a recognition of the results of polls, which indicate that Biden leads the popularity of 8 to 11% according to the different indices.

This difference can theoretically be compensated for by some good internal and external scores. But yesterday’s friends’ attacks on President Trump give Democrats powerful arguments to undermine his chances of winning a second term.

This explains why President Trump recently firmly admitted his drop in the polls, citing the impact of his “harassment for three years” which made him lose points in the polls. “If I was not constantly harassed for three years by false and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia and the accusation hoax, I would gain 25 points over Joe the sleeper and the Democrats. It’s very unfair, but it’s like that !!!, ”he tweeted.

The turnaround in the polls and the renewed support for Biden, which obtained 48%, compared to 43% for Trump in the April polls, show in an edifying way the very negative impact of the inability to manage the coronavirus crisis and protests against the death of George Floyd.

President Trump’s chances of victory therefore seem to depend entirely on his ability to make quick qualitative achievements to reverse the polls before November 5.

* Dr. Salem Alketbi is a researcher, writer and political scientist

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