1 – 27,500 dollars approximately: the price of a Bitcoin on December 27 against 7,600 at the beginning of January. Should we say Thank you Papa Noël, thank you scary virus, thank you anonymous inventors of this asset, thank you Central Banks who allow you to buy it for nothing and speculate?
Bitcoin: what drives it up and how far?
2 – Pandemic: the figures continue to be alarming, 81 million cases and 1.8 million deaths worldwide. The fateful figure of 1000 deaths per million inhabitants, 1 death in 1000, is now crossed by the United States (1024), behind Italy (1185), Peru (1127), Spain (1065) and the United Kingdom (1034). France, with 958 deaths per million and 2.55 million cases, 5th in absolute terms, is unfortunately not far away. The question everywhere is the following: will the holidays, with their trips and meetings, lead to an upsurge in cases?
World: Towards a fourth wave of COVID-19 cases, after the holidays? Cases per day and average over 7 rolling days (December 27, 2020)
3 – The stock markets look elsewhere. Vaccines support the most advanced innovations and companies, benefiting the Nasdaq, by a sort of “Moderna effect” reinforcing high-tech values: 20 dollars on December 26, 2019, 123 on December 23, 2020. The Nasdaq, thus propelled by new technologies in the field of health, continues its advance and finally convinces the Dow Jones, still supported by liquidity from the Fed. At the same time, the good news from Asia is added: the profits of Chinese industries rise by 2.4% from January to November this year, compared to the first eleven months of 2019, the growth of Vietnam (place of production and Chinese exports to the United States) accelerated to 4.5%: the Shanghai index rose 11% and the Nikkei by 15%. The German DAX in turn benefits from exports to China. The CAC 40 is still struggling, with a recovery in November which seems to stop, its level being 7.9% lower than in January 2020. The question to come is that of the English stock market, still lower over one year (-13.7%): in fact, the markets had already anticipated the signing of the agreement, it remains for them to better assess its scope.
4 – Disinflation is everywhere, soon deflation in China? Prices are falling in much of the world, Eurozone (-0.3%) and China now (-0.5%), with a rebound in the US now in play, from a high at 1.4% three months ago, to 1.2% since October. In this context, central banks have only one thing to do: continue to buy treasury bills to lower long rates, even if budget deficits are widening everywhere, to allow rates on private bonds to fall. and bank loans. They must feed the machine to make loans so that growth, employment and inflation expectations can rise, crucial weapons against a deflationary risk. For now, with COVID-19, the game is not over.
5 – Soy is the rising value, under the effect of the Chinese recovery, which consumes a great deal of it, then comes gold – still a refuge, then wheat, due to the drop in yields linked to global warming. At the same time, with the slow recovery, oil is slowly reducing its losses.
6 – The dollar continues its controlled decline. On the one hand, the Fed announces that it will continue its purchases of US treasury bonds, supporting the current fiscal policy, and then allowing its increase (but nothing will be easy with the Republicans). At the same time, the Treasury tracks the currencies that would manipulate their exchange rate, in other words would not allow it to rise enough against the dollar. These are Germany, Ireland, Italy – so the euro, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam – so China, without saying too much, and Switzerland, obsessed with the risk of to be the world’s safe haven, at the risk of suffocation. For political reasons, the Treasury study has not been released: we are waiting for Biden! On the other hand, the currencies which have fallen the most must review their monetary policy by raising their rates (Turkey), wait for the rise of oil and raw materials (Russia) or hope for the IMF (South Africa). The Brazilian question is open. Essentially, we will therefore have to wait for the inauguration of Joe Biden.
7 – In the French case, the question always arises of a third confinement and its effects on employment while the morale of entrepreneurs is recovering, without reaching its previous “normal”. All of this is therefore very fragile.
France: the third wave of COVID-19 cases in question (December 27)
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